{"msg": "885\nAXNT20 KNHC 121052\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Mon Oct 12 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1000 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W, south of 19N, \nmoving westward at 10 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed near\nthe wave axis 15.5N30W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong \nconvection is present from 12N to 22N and between 21W and 30W. A \nrecent scatterometer satellite pass captured a large area of fresh\nto strong winds associated with this system. Seas are 6-10 ft in \nthe area described. Environmental conditions appear, at best, \nmarginally conducive for any development of this system during the\nnext day or two before upper-level winds become too strong for \nany further development. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected \nover the couple of days for portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as \nthe system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward. There is\na low chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 \nhours, and also through next 7 days.\nA central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W, south of 18N, \nmoving westward near 10-15 kt. A 1010 mb low is along the wave \naxis near 10N43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is observed in the vicinity of the low center, mainly \nfrom 08N to 11N and between 40W and 45W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea \nnear 12N17W and continues westward to 17N28W and then \nsouthwestward to 07N49W. The ITCZ extends from 07N49W to 05N53W. \nThe significant convection near these boundaries is described in \nthe Tropical Wave section.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA cold front extends from 26N82W to 25N86W, then becomes \nstationary from that point to 26N97W. A few showers are noted \nnear the stationary boundary. Showers and isolated thunderstorms \nare also evident in the eastern Bay of Campeche due to storms that\nformed over Yucatan earlier today. A 1020 mb high pressure \ncentered just south of Pensacola, Florida supports moderate to \nlocally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the \nbasin, except for weaker winds and slight seas in the NE and SW \nGulf. \nFor the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move across \nthe southeast Gulf then stall and dissipate through midweek. High \npressure building in the wake of the front over the will support E\nto SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the \nTexas coast, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. Fresh \nto strong NE winds and building seas will follow a front moving \ninto the northeast Gulf Fri night. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe storm activity continues to diminish in the eastern and \ncentral Caribbean in association with a large upper-level low \nmoving westward across the area. Similar convection is found in \nthe Bay Islands of Honduras, near the Cayman Islands and Jamaica \nand off Panama. \nA tighter pressure gradient across the south-central and SE\nCaribbean due to a strong subtropical ridge over the NW Atlantic\nand lower pressures in northern South America force fresh to\nstrong eastern trade winds and seas of 6-7 ft. Moderate to fresh \ntrades and moderate seas are evident in the rest of the central \nand eastern Caribbean, along with the Windward Passage, lee of \nCuba and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and\nslight to moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support moderate\nto fresh trade winds and moderate seas across the eastern and \ncentral Caribbean through Mon, with fresh to strong E winds and \nrough seas across the Windward Passage and off Colombia. These \nwinds and seas will diminish Tue as the high pressure shifts \neastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Gulf and western\nAtlantic. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease read the Tropical Waves section for information on the\ndisturbance west of the Cabo Verde Islands.\nA cold front exits the Carolinas and enters our area near 31N77W \nand continues southwestward to 28N80W. A few showers and isolated\nthunderstorms are noted ahead of the boundary. Farther east, \nanother cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N37W and \ncontinues southwestward to 26N48W, followed by a stationary front\nto 26N68W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are \npresent within 120 nm of these boundaries. \nThe pressure gradient between these fronts, deep tropics and a \nstrong high pressure in the NW Atlantic sustain moderate to fresh \nanticyclonic winds and seas of 4-8 ft across much of the SW North \nAtlantic. The strongest winds and highest seas are occurring \nbehind the front in the central Atlantic. In the remainder of the\nAtlantic, high pressure dominates, supporting moderate or weaker \nwinds and moderate seas.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front in the\nwest Atlantic will continue moving E through midweek. The \nnorthern part of the front will continue to move eastward before \nstalling and dissipating through midweek, while the western part \nlifts northward across the Bahamas and Florida while dissipating. \nA cold front may move into the waters off northeast Florida by \nlate Fri night into early Sat morning. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1218091253287419907", "issued": "2026-10-12T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1218091253287419907"}