{"msg": "932\nAXPZ20 KNHC 120900\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Mon Oct 12 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0830 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Simon is centered near 20.0N 106.3W at 12/0900 UTC,\nmoving northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120\nkt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered \nstrong convection is within 45 nm of the center. Scattered \nmoderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 17N to \n21N between 104W and 111W. Simon is moving slowly to the \nnorthwest and is forecast to to continue moving slowly near the \ncoast of Mexico for the next few days. Gradual weakening is \nexpected due to the proximity to the mountainous terrain, which \ncould further disrupt the hurricane's structure along its eastern\nside. Simon is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of\n2 to 4 inches with isolated additional amounts of 8 inches over \nportions of the states of Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit and Sinaloa \nthrough early Thursday. Isolated maximum storm totals of 30 \ninches are possible over portions of the states of Michoacan, \nColima, and Jalisco. This rainfall will produce life-threatening \nflooding and mudslides or worsen any on- going flooding, \nespecially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Simon \nwill affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west- \ncentral Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely \nto cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please\nconsult products from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the\nNational Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 91W/92W, north of 02N. Low \npressure has formed in association with the wave, and the system\nis producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system\nhas become better defined since yesterday, and environmental \nconditions are forecast to be conducive for further development. \nA tropical depression is expected to form well south of southern \nMexico in a few days while the system moves generally west- \nnorthwestward at around 10 mph. There is a medium chance for \ntropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, and a high \nchance through next 7 days.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N91W to 13N100W, \nthen resumes near 16N115W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and \nisolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 10N E of 90W, and\nfrom 02N to 15N between 90W and 100W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Simon.\nA cold front extends from the northern Gulf of California SW to\nnear 22N128W. Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas are \nimpacting the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front. \nGentle to locally moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, \nare elsewhere over the Gulf. Fresh to locally strong winds are in\nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, outside of the areas \nimpacted by Hurricane Simon, moderate or weaker winds and \nmoderate to rough seas prevail. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Simon is near 20.0N 106.3W at 2 AM \nPDT, and is moving northwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are\n100 kt with gusts to 120 kt, and the minimum central pressure is\n958 mb. Simon will move to 20.6N 106.7W this afternoon, 21.2N \n107.1W Tue morning, 21.8N 107.3W Tue afternoon, 22.3N 107.2W Wed \nmorning, 22.9N 107.0W Wed afternoon, and inland to 23.4N 106.6W \nThu morning. A cold front moving across the northern waters will \nstart to weaken today. The front will support fresh to strong SW \nwinds across the northern Gulf of California today. Rough seas \nlingering west of the Baja California peninsula will gradually \ndiminish through early this week. Elsewhere, a broad area of low \npressure has formed several hundred miles south of the coast of \nGuatemala, accompanied by some shower and thunderstorm activity. \nThis system has become better defined since yesterday, and \nenvironmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further\ndevelopment. A tropical depression is expected to form well \nsouth of southern Mexico in a few days while the system moves \ngenerally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. There is a medium \nchance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, and\na high chance through next 7 days. Regardless of development, \nexpect an increase in winds and seas across the waters off \nsouthern Mexico by midweek. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas prevail over \nthe Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas \nare elsewhere N of 08N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and \nmoderate seas in SW swell prevail S of 08N. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate\nor lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast \nwaters through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh NE to E \nwinds are expected in the Papagayo region today. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA cold front is moving across the NE waters followed by moderate\nto fresh northerly winds and rough seas. Similar marine conditions\nare noted elsewhere N of 20N W of 120W. Moderate or lighter \nwinds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the\ndiscussion waters.\nFor the forecast, the cold front will move across the NE waters \nthrough Tue while gradually dissipating. Large SW swell will \naffect the waters S of the Equator and west of 105W over the \nnext couple of days. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1218069309567860739", "issued": "2026-10-12T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1218069309567860739"}