{"id": "1218068110106624003", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-12T09:00:00Z", "msg": "642\nWTPZ45 KNHC 120854\nTCDEP5\n \nHurricane Simon Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026\n200 AM MST Mon Oct 12 2026\n \nSimon continues to show signs of weakening as the eye has become\nfilled in, although infrared imagery shows that the central dense \novercast has cooled since the previous advisory. There is a wide \nspread in intensity estimates, ranging from 73-127 kt. Since there \nhas been an overall modest degradation to the cloud pattern, the \ncurrent intensity is nudged downward to 100 kt. The initial wind \nradii were modified with the help of timely SAR pass.\n \nThe cyclone is drifting off to the northwest as it is being steered \nby a distant mid-level ridge centered over the south-central United \nStates. Simon is expected to continue moving slowly near the coast \nof Mexico for the next few days. However, there is still a higher \nthan normal amount of uncertainty in the track, and some models \nshow that Simon gets trapped in an area of light steering between \nthe US ridge and one well southwest of Simon. Later, a trough from \nthe northwest will approach the hurricane and force Simon to turn \ntoward the northeast with increasing forward speed, though the \ntiming of this turn is uncertain. The latest NHC forecast is just \nwest of the previous advisory after considering some of the latest \nAI-based guidance.  \n \nWeakening is expected to continue due to Simon's proximity to the \nmountainous terrain, as well as some easterly wind shear. However, \nthe sea-surface temperatures that Simon will be moving across \nlater this week are around 31-32 C, which could moderate the \nweakening trend, as well as the new track being slightly farther \noffshore. The current NHC intensity forecast is generally the same \nas the previous forecast with only a few adjustments. Simon is \nstill expected to rapidly weakening once the cyclone makes landfall \naround 72 h.\n\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Dangerous wind and storm surge impacts are likely along a \nportion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a Hurricane \nWarning is in effect from Playa Perula to El Roblito. Residents \nshould continue to shelter in a safe room to ride out the\nstorm as the most significant hazards are ongoing.\n \n2. Simon is expected to approach the coast of western Mexico later\nthis week, where hurricane conditions are possible. A Hurricane\nWatch is in effect from El Roblito to Bahia Tempehuaya.\n \n3. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of \nsouthwestern and west-central Mexico over the next few days. This \nrainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, \nespecially in areas of steep terrain.\n \n4. Large swells will affect portions of the southwestern and \nwest-central coasts of Mexico over the next few days. These swells \nare likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  12/0900Z 20.0N 106.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  12/1800Z 20.6N 106.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  13/0600Z 21.2N 107.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  13/1800Z 21.8N 107.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  14/0600Z 22.3N 107.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 60H  14/1800Z 22.9N 107.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  15/0600Z 23.4N 106.6W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  16/0600Z 24.1N 105.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}