{"msg": "900\nAXNT20 KNHC 120537\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Mon Oct 12 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0515 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W, south of 19N, \nmoving westward at 10 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed \nalong the wave axis 14N31W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong\nconvection is present from 10N to 18N and between 21W and 31W. A\nrecent scatterometer satellite pass captured a large area of fresh\nto strong winds associated with this system. Seas are 6-10 ft in\nthe area described. Environmental conditions appear, at best,\nmarginally conducive for any development of this system during \nthe next day or two before upper-level winds become too strong for\nany further development. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected \nover the couple of days for portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as \nthe system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward. There is\na low chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 \nhours, and also through next 7 days.\nA central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W, south of 19N, \nmoving westward near 10-15 kt. A 1010 mb low is along the wave \naxis near 10N42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is observed in the vicinity of the low center, and \nmainly from 07N to 13N and between 35W and 45W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea \nnear 13N16W and continues westward to 13N31W and then\nsouthwestward to 10N43W to 08N49W. The ITCZ extends from 08N49W \nto 06N57W. The significant convection near these boundaries is\ndescribed in the Tropical Wave section.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA cold front extends from Venice, Florida, near 27N82W to 25N86W\nand then westward as a stationary front to 25N97W. A few showers\nare seen near the stationary boundary. Showers and isolated\nthunderstorms are also evident in the eastern Bay of Campeche due\nto storms that formed over Yucatan earlier today. A 1020 mb high\npressure centered just south of Pensacola, Florida supports\nmoderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across\nmuch of the basin, except for weaker winds and slight seas in the\nNE and SW Gulf. \nFor the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move across \nthe southeast Gulf then stall and dissipate through midweek. High \npressure building in the wake of the front over the will support E\nto SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the \nTexas coast, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. Fresh \nto strong NE winds and building seas will follow a front moving \ninto the northeast Gulf Fri night.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe storm activity has diminished in the eastern and central\nCaribbean in association with a large upper-level low moving\nwestward across the area. However, some showers and isolated\nthunderstorms are still associated with this feature. Similar\nconvection is found in the Bay Islands of Honduras, near the\nCayman Islands and Jamaica and off Panama. \nA tighter pressure gradient across the south-central and SE\nCaribbean due to a strong subtropical ridge over the NW Atlantic\nand lower pressures in northern South America force fresh to\nstrong eastern trade winds and seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh\ntrades and moderate seas are evident in the rest of the central\nand eastern Caribbean, along with the Windward Passage, lee of\nCuba and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and\nslight to moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support \nmoderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas across the eastern\nand central Caribbean through Mon, with fresh to strong E winds \nand rough seas across the Windward Passage and off Colombia. These\nwinds and seas will diminish Tue as the high pressure shifts \neastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Gulf and western\nAtlantic. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease read the Tropical Waves section for information on the\ndisturbance west of the Cabo Verde Islands.\nA cold front exits the Carolinas and enters our area near 31N79W\nand continues southwestward to Cape Canaveral, Florida. A few\nshowers and isolated thunderstorms are noted ahead of the\nboundary. Farther east, another cold front enters the tropical\nAtlantic near 31N39W and continues southwestward to 28N46W,\nfollowed by a stationary front to 25N60W and 27N68W. Scattered\nshowers and isolated thunderstorms are present within 120 nm of\nthese boundaries. \nThe pressure gradient between these fronts, deep tropics and a \nstrong high pressure in the NW Atlantic sustain moderate to fresh \nanticyclonic winds and seas of 4-8 ft across much of the SW North \nAtlantic. The strongest winds and highest seas are occurring \nbehind the front in the central Atlantic. In the remainder of the\nAtlantic, high pressure dominates, supporting moderate or weaker \nwinds and moderate seas.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front moving\noff central Florida will reach from 31N77W to Jupiter Inlet, \nFlorida late Mon, and from Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by \nearly Tue. The northern part of the front will continue to move \neastward before stalling and dissipating through mid week, while \nthe western part lifts northward across the Bahamas and Florida \nwhile dissipating. A cold front may move into the waters off \nnortheast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1218029367465279491", "issued": "2026-10-12T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1218029367465279491"}