{"msg": "055\nAXPZ20 KNHC 120255\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Mon Oct 12 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0230 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Simon is centered near 19.8N 106.0W at 12/0300 UTC,\nmoving northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n956 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130\nkt. Peak seas are near 22 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered \nstrong convection is within 60 N of the center. Scattered \nmoderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 15N to \n22N between 103W and 110W. Simon is moving slowly north-\nnorthwestward, and is forecast to track parallel to the coast of \nwest-central Mexico over the next day or so. Gradual weakening is\nexpected due to the proximity to the mountainous terrain, which \ncould further disrupt the hurricane's structure along its eastern\nside. Simon is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of\n2 to 4 inches with isolated additional amounts of 8 inches over \nportions of the states of Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit and Sinaloa \nthrough early Thursday. Isolated maximum storm totals of 30 \ninches are possible over portions of the states of Michoacan, \nColima, and Jalisco. This rainfall will produce life-threatening \nflooding and mudslides or worsen any on-going flooding, \nespecially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Simon \nwill affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west- \ncentral Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely \nto cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please\nconsult products from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the\nNational Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 91W, north of 02N. The wave\nis is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. \nEnvironmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual\ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is expected to form well \nsouth of southern Mexico by the middle or latter half of the week\nas the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 \nmph. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development \nin the next 48 hours, and a high chance through next 7 days.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N91W to 12N102W, \nthen resumes near 16N115W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and \nisolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 15N E of 100W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Simon.\nFresh to strong SW winds and rough seas are impacting the \nnorthern Gulf of California. Gentle to locally moderate winds,\nand slight to moderate seas, are elsewhere over the Gulf. Fresh \nto strong winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, \noutside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Simon, moderate or \nweaker winds and moderate to rough seas prevail. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Simon is near 19.8N 106.0W at 8 PM \nPDT, and is moving northwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are\n105 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is\n956 mb. Simon will move to 20.5N 106.3W Mon morning, 21.2N \n106.8W Mon evening, 21.8N 107.1W Tue morning, 22.4N 107.0W Tue \nevening, 23.0N 106.7W Wed morning, and inland to 23.4N 106.4W Wed\nevening. A cold front moving across the northern waters will \nstart to weaken today. The front will support fresh to strong SW \nwinds across the northern Gulf of California through Mon. Rough \nseas lingering west of the Baja California peninsula will \ngradually diminish through early this week. Elsewhere, \ndisorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a \ntropical wave moving across the waters of southern Mexico. \nEnvironmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual\ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is expected to form well \nsouth of southern Mexico by the middle or latter half of the week\nas the system moves generally west- northwestward at around 10 \nmph. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development in\nthe next 48 hours, and a high chance through next 7 days. \nRegardless of development, expect an increase in winds and seas \nacross the waters off southern Mexico by midweek. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas prevail over \nthe Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are \nelsewhere N of 04N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and \nmoderate seas in SW swell prevail S of 04N. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate\nor lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast \nwaters through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh NE to E\nwinds are expected in the Papagayo region tonight. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA cold front is moving across the NE waters followed by moderate\nto fresh northerly winds and rough seas. Similar marine conditions\nare noted elsewhere N of 20N W of 120W. Moderate or lighter \nwinds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the\ndiscussion waters.\nFor the forecast, the cold front will move across the NE waters \nthrough Tue while gradually dissipating. Large SW swell will \naffect the waters S of the Equator and west of 105W over the \nnext couple of days. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217997549375193091", "issued": "2026-10-12T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217997549375193091"}