{"id": "1217996638780424195", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-12T03:00:00Z", "msg": "993\nWTPZ45 KNHC 120251\nTCDEP5\n \nHurricane Simon Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026\n800 PM MST Sun Oct 11 2026\n \nSimon is showing signs of weakening this evening, likely due to its \nprolonged close proximity to the Mexican coastline and the \nassociated negative affects of nearby mountainous terrain. Infrared \nsatellite imagery indicates warming cloud tops within the convection \nin the northeastern quadrant, with mid-level dry air beginning to \nwrap around the western side of the cyclone. Recent objective Dvorak \nintensity estimates have decreased over the past several hours and \nrange from 99-110 kt. Based on the deteriorating satellite \npresentation and the lower intensity estimates, the initial \nintensity is set at 105 kt for this advisory. \n\nThe major hurricane is moving slowly north-northwestward, steered by \na mid-level ridge centered over the south-central United States. \nSimon is forecast to track parallel to the coast of west-central \nMexico over the next day or so. However, its continued close \nproximity to land will likely bring hurricane conditions to portions \nof the warning area, particularly near Cabo Corrientes, even though \nthe core is forecast to remain just offshore. Around midweek, a \nstrong upper-level low moving across the western United States is \nexpected to induce a turn toward the north and then northeast. \nAlthough there remains some model spread, an increasing number of \nthe hurricane regional models and consensus aids, including HCCA, \nbring Simon onshore around midweek. The latest NHC forecast is very \nsimilar to the previous advisory, showing Simon moving inland and \ndissipating in the day 3-4 period. \n\nGradual weakening is expected due to the proximity to the \nmountainous terrain, which could further disrupt the hurricane's \nstructure along its eastern side. A slight increase in wind shear \nand the entrainment of drier mid-level air should further contribute \nto the weakening trend. However, as Simon turns northward then \nnortheastward around midweek, it is forecast to move over very warm \nwaters of 31-32 C, which could limit further weakening before \nlandfall. The latest NHC forecast has been nudged upward slightly \nbeyond 12 h, with Simon expected to maintain hurricane strength \nthrough landfall. This forecast lies near the middle of the \nintensity guidance envelope. Rapid weakening is expected once Simon \nmoves inland, and dissipation is forecast by 96 h. \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge impacts are \nlikely along a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a \nHurricane Warning is in effect from Playa Perula to El Roblito. \nResidents should continue to shelter in a safe room to ride out the \nstorm as the most significant hazards are ongoing.\n\n2. Simon is expected to approach the coast of western Mexico later \nthis week, where hurricane conditions are possible. A Hurricane \nWatch is in effect from El Roblito to Bahia Tempehuaya. \n\n3. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of \nsouthwestern and west-central Mexico over the next few days. This \nrainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, \nespecially in areas of steep terrain.\n \n4. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central\ncoast of Mexico over the next few days. These swells are likely to\ncause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please\nconsult products from your local weather office.\n\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  12/0300Z 19.8N 106.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  12/1200Z 20.5N 106.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  13/0000Z 21.2N 106.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  13/1200Z 21.8N 107.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  14/0000Z 22.4N 107.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 60H  14/1200Z 23.0N 106.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  15/0000Z 23.4N 106.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  16/0000Z 24.0N 105.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}