{"msg": "405\nAXNT20 KNHC 112302\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Mon Oct 12 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2300 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 20N, moving\nwestward at 5 to 10 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed along\nthe wave axis 14N29W. The most recent satellite scatterometer data\nindicate strong S to SW winds to 30 kt across the SE quadrant, \nand fresh to strong NE to E winds across the N semicircle of center.\nSeas are 8 to 11 ft across these areas. A cluster of moderate to\nstrong convection is just E of the low center. Environmental \nconditions appear only marginally conducive for some development \nof this system over the next day or two before upper-level winds \nbecome too strong for any further development by midweek. Regardless,\nheavy rainfall is expected over the next few days for portions \nof the Cabo Verde Islands as the system moves slowly northward to\nnorth-northwestward. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone \ndevelopment in the next 48 hours, and also through next 7 days.\nAnother Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W/41W, south of 19N, \nmoving westward near 15 kt. A 1010 mb low is along the wave axis \nnear 10N41W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is \nobserved in the vicinity of the low center, and mainly from 08N \nto 13N and between 38W and 45W.\nThe tropical that wave previously located over the NW Caribbean \nhas now its axis over the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala. \nPlease, see more information in the eastern Pacific Tropical \nWeather Discussion.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of west\nAfrica near 12N16W and continues westward to 14N29W to 10N41W to\n08N46W. The ITCZ extends from 08N46W to 08N60W. Aside from the \nconvection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate\nconvection is noted from 05N to 10N between 20W and 38W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA stationary front extends from near Sarasota, Florida across the\ncentral Gulf to near NE Mexico. Some shower activity, with embedded\nthunderstorms, are along the frontal boundary. A band of showers\nand thunderstorms is noted ahead of the front affecting portions\nof central and south Florida. A 1021 mb high pressure has shifted\nsouthward into the north-central Gulf, and it is located just S \nof SE Louisiana. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 3 \nto 5 ft prevail N of the front. Light to gentle winds and slight \nto moderate seas are south of the front. \nFor the forecast, the front will move across the southeast Gulf \nand stall, then dissipate through mid week. High pressure building\nbehind the front over the north-central Gulf will support E to \nSE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the Texas \ncoast, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. Looking \nahead, fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will follow\nanother cold front moving into the northeast Gulf Fri night.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA large upper level low center is shifting westward across the \neastern Caribbean, generating a significant area of showers and\nthunderstorms. At the surface, high pressure remains well north \nof the basin across the NW Atlantic. The modest pressure gradient\nacross the Caribbean is forcing moderate to fresh easterly trade\nwinds and moderate to locally rough seas to 8 ft across most of \nthe basin E of 82W. Fresh to strong winds are occurring S of \nHispaniola, through the Windward Passage, and offshore Colombia.\nFor the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support \nmoderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas across the \neastern and central Caribbean through Mon, with fresh to strong \nE winds and rough seas across the Windward Passage and off \nColombia. These winds and seas will diminish Tue as the high \npressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the\nGulf and western Atlantic. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N40W and continues\nsouthwestward to 27N50W, then becomes stationary to 27N68W. Fresh\nto strong NE to E winds follow the front E of 65W. Scattered \nshowers and isolated thunderstorms are near the front. Meanwhile,\nscattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue in a 75 nm\nwide band off NE Florida, ahead of a cold front moving across \ncentral Florida. The modest pressure gradient between a strong \nridge over the NW Atlantic and the aforementioned front north of \nthe Leeward Islands is sustaining moderate easterly winds S of \n25N W of 65W, including the Bahamas and the Old Bahamas Channel.  \nThe remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence\nof a 1024 mb high pressure located N of the Madeira Islands near\n35N17.5W. The pressure gradient between its associated ridge and\nlower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough supports \nmoderate to locally strong NE to E winds N of the monsoon trough \nto about 24N and E of 44W, with stronger winds near the tropical\nwave located along 29W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and \nmoderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a cold front moving off northeast \nFlorida will reach from 31N77W to Jupiter Inlet, Florida late \nMon, and from Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by early Tue. The\nnorthern part of the front will continue to move eastward before\nstalling and dissipating through mid week, while the western \npart lifts northward across the Bahamas and Florida while \ndissipating. Looking ahead, a cold front may move into the waters\noff northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217951591635910659", "issued": "2026-10-11T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217951591635910659"}