{"msg": "668\nAXPZ20 KNHC 112157\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Sun Oct 11 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Simon is centered near 19.6N 105.8W at 11/2100 UTC,\nmoving north-northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 947 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with\ngusts to 140 kt. Peak seas are near 30 ft. Numerous moderate to \nscattered strong convection is from 18N to 20N between 104W and \n108W. The core of the hurricane continues to skirt the coast of \nwest-central Mexico with hurricane conditions likely occurring. \nOn the forecast track, Simon is expected to pass near the coast \nof west-central Mexico this afternoon and evening before moving a\nlittle farther away on Monday. At that time, the center of Simon\nis forecast to move just west of the Maria Islands Mon afternoon\nand evening. Simon is then forecast to turn back towards the \ncoast of Mexico on Wednesday. Simon is a category 4 hurricane on \nthe Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is \nforecast but Simon is still expected to be a strong hurricane as \nit passes near the coast of west-central Mexico this afternoon \nand evening. Simon is now expected to remain a hurricane when it \nmoves farther offshore again on Monday and Tuesday. Simon is \nexpected to produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches \nwith isolated additional amounts of 8 inches over portions of the\nstates of Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit and Sinaloa through early \nThursday. Isolated maximum storm totals of 30 inches are possible\nover portions of the states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. \nThis rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and \nmudslides or worsen any on-going flooding, especially in areas of\nsteep terrain. Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of\nthe coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the \nnext few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening \nsurf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from \nyour local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the\nNational Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 91W, north of 05N. It is \nproducing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A 1011 mb low\npressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 08N91W based on\nscatterometer data. Environmental conditions are expected to be \nconducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is \nexpected to form well south of southern Mexico by the middle or \nlatter half of the week as the system moves generally west-\nnorthwestward at around 10 mph. There is a low chance for \ntropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, and a high \nchance through next 7 days.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to a 1011 mb low pressure\nlocated near 08N91W to 10N96W, then resumes near 12N120W to \nbeyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection\nis noted from 00N to 10N E of 96W to the coast of Colombia. \nScattered moderate convection is observed from 00N to 06N W of \n96W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nMajor Hurricane Simon.\nFresh to strong SW winds and rough seas on the southern side of \nthe remnants of Rachel are impacting the northern Gulf of \nCalifornia. Wind flow around the system is also forcing moderate\nto locally fresh gap winds over portions of the central Gulf of \nCalifornia. In addition, a cold front is moving across the NE \nwaters. Rough seas generated by strong northerly winds offshore \nCalifornia, and behind the cold front, continue to propagate \nacross the waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Moderate\nto fresh N winds are blowing across the Tehuantepec area with \nseas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, outside of the areas impacted by \nHurricane Simon, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate \nseas prevail. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Simon will move to 20.2N 106.1W Mon \nmorning, 21.0N 106.6W Mon afternoon, 21.6N 106.9W Tue morning, \n22.2N 107.1W Tue afternoon, 22.8N 107.0W Wed morning, and 23.4N \n106.6W Wed afternoon. Simon will weaken to a tropical depression \nwhile moving inland near 24.0N 105.9W Thu afternoon. The remnants\nof Rachel, combined with the above mentioned cold front, will \ncontinue to support fresh to strong SW winds across the northern \nGulf of California through early Mon morning. Winds and seas \nlingering west of the Baja California peninsula will gradually \ndiminish through early this week. Elsewhere, disorganized \nshowers and thunderstorms over the far eastern East Pacific are \nassociated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are \nexpected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical \ndepression is expected to form well south of southern Mexico by the \nmiddle or latter half of the week as the system moves generally \nwest-northwestward at around 10 kt. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas prevail over \nthe Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are \nelsewhere N of 05N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and \nmoderate seas in SW swell prevail S of 05N. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate\nor lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast \nwaters through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh NE to E\nwinds are expected in the Papagayo region tonight. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricane Simon.\nA cold front is moving across the NE waters followed by moderate\nto fresh northerly winds and rough seas. Similar marine conditions\nare noted elsewhere N of 20N W of 110W. Moderate or lighter winds\nand moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the forecast \nregion outside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Simon.\nFor the forecast, the cold front will continue to move across\nthe NE waters through Tue while gradually dissipating. Large SW \nswell will continue to affect the waters S of the Equator and \nwest of 105W over the next couple of days. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217938974254530563", "issued": "2026-10-11T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217938974254530563"}