{"msg": "230\nAXNT20 KNHC 111645\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Sun Oct 11 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1630 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 20N, \nmoving westward at 5-10 kt. A 1012 mb low pressure is analyzed \nalong monsoon trough near 12.5N29W. Recent satellite scatterometer\ndata shows strong S to SW winds to 30 kt across the SE semicircle\nand fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across the N semicircle.\nSeas are 8 to 11 ft across these areas. This broad system is \nproducing a large area of scattered to numerous moderate isolated \nstrong convection from 06.5N to 17N and between 20W and 36W.\nAnother Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W, south of 18N, moving\nwestward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection\nis observed from 08N to 15.5N and between 38W and 44W.\nA western Caribbean tropical wave is along 88.5W, south of 20N, \nmoving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave continues to interact with \nan upper-level low over the NW Caribbean and Central America, and\nis supporting scattered moderate strong convection over the NW \nCaribbean and adjacent portions of Central America from 10N to\n18.5N between 82W and 89.5W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra\nLeone near 09N13W and continues to 14N27W then southwestward to a\n1012 mb low near 12.5N29W to 11.5N36W to 07.5N46W. The ITCZ \nextends from 07N47W to 07N59W. Aside from the convection associated\nwith the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted \nfrom 03N to 08N between 20W and the coast of Africa.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA cold front extends across northern Florida and enters the NE\nGulf waters near Cedar Key and continues southwestward to 26.5N86W\nwhere it has become stationary and continues to 23.5N94W to the\nMexican coast near 24N98W. from 30N84W to 25N97W, then becomes \nstationary to 23N97W. Scattered moderate convection is found along\na pre-frontal trough from the Tampa Bay area southwestward to\n25N87.5W and within 90 nm N of the front between 93W and 98W.  \nA surface trough is analyzed S of the front near the Mexican coast\nfrom just north of Tampico to near Veracruz, where scattered\nmoderate convection is also evident. 1020 mb high pressure has\nshifted southward into the N central Gulf, centered just E of the\nmouth of the Mississippi River, and extends a broad ridge behind\nthe front. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail N of the front\nto 28.5N, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. However, NE swell generated by\nIsaias continues to move across the western Gulf, and is\nproducing 6 to 7 ft seas from 21N to 24N W of 94W, where large \nwaves are generating rough surf along much of the Mexican coast W\nof Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate \nseas prevail.\nFor the forecast, the cold front will move across the southeast \nGulf through mid week. High pressure building behind the front \nover the north- central Gulf will support E to SE winds and \nmoderate seas from the Florida Straits to the Texas coast, and \ngentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. Large NE swell in the \nwest-central Gulf W of 94W is subsiding this morning.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active\ntropical wave in the western Caribbean.\nA large upper level low center is shifting westward across the\neastern Caribbean, and generating a significant area of scattered\nmoderate convection from 13N to 18N between 59W and 69W. At the\nsurface, high pressure remains well north of the basin across the\nNW Atlantic. The modest pressure gradient across the Caribbean is \nforcing moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to \nlocally rough seas to 8 ft across most of the basin E of 82W. A \nfew areas of strong winds are occurring S of Hispaniola, through \nthe Windward Passage, and along the coast of Colombia. \nFor the forecast, an upper level low will support scattered\nshowers and thunderstorms E of 68W to the Leeward Islands. \nAnother upper trough will also support thunderstorms across the \nwestern Caribbean. High pressure well north of the area will \nsupport moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas across the\neastern and central Caribbean through into Mon, with fresh to \nstrong E winds and rough seas across the Windward Passage and off \nColombia. These winds and seas will diminish Tue as the high \npressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the \nGulf of America and western Atlantic. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N45W and \ncontinues southwestward to 28N52W, then becomes stationary to\n27N64W to 31N69W. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm S of these\nboundaries between 51W and 64W, then become scattered to numerous\nwithin 180 nm SE of the cold front between 43W and 51W. Meanwhile,\nscattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue in a 75 nm\nwide band off NE Florida, ahead of a cold front moving across the\neastern Gulf of America and N Florida. The modest pressure \ngradient between a strong ridge over the NW Atlantic and the \naforementioned front north of the Leeward Islands is sustaining \nmoderate easterly winds S of 25N between 63W and the central\nBahamas, and moderate to fresh southerly winds across the northern\nBahamas and waters W of 76W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft S of 25N and 4 to\n7 ft from the NW Bahamas northward. NW Atlantic high pressure is\nforcing fresh to locally strong N to NE winds behind the fronts\nbetween 45W and 66W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. \nThe remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the \ninfluence of a 1022 mb high pressure located SE of the Azores. \nThe pressure gradient between its associated ridge and lower \npressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough supports moderate \nto locally strong NE to E winds N of the monsoon trough to about \n24N and E of 44W, with strong winds about the 2 tropical waves. \nElsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a cold front moving through Florida\nwill enter the Atlantic off NE Florida this evening, and into the\nadjacent offshore waters overnight. The front will reach from \nBermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by early Tue. The northern part \nof the front will continue to move eastward before stalling and \ndissipating through mid week, while the western part lifts \nnorthward across the Bahamas and Florida while dissipating. \nLooking ahead, moderate NW winds may follow another front stalling\nalong 30N to the southeast of Bermuda by late Thu night. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217877609347645443", "issued": "2026-10-11T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217877609347645443"}