{"msg": "027\nAXPZ20 KNHC 111559\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Sun Oct 11 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Simon is centered near 19.2N 105.3W at 11/1500 UTC,\nmoving north-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 937 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with\ngusts to 155 kt. Peak seas are near 30 ft. Numerous moderate t \nscattered strong convection is within 60 nm of center, except 90\nnm SW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection\nis in a band to the E of center from 13N to 18N between 102W and\n104W. Simon is moving toward the north-northwest and this general\nmotion is expected to continue over the next day or two. On the \nforecast track, Simon is expected to be very near the coast of \nwest-central Mexico later today and remain close to the coast on \nMonday. Simon is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson \nHurricane Wind Scale. While some weakening could occur, Simon is \nstill forecast to move very near the coast of west-central Mexico as \na major hurricane today. More significant weakening could occur if \nthe core of Simon moves fully onshore or interacts with the higher \nterrain. Simon is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of \n8 to 16 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated \nmaximum storm totals of 30 inches possible across portions of \nMichoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday. This rainfall \nwill produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially \nin areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Simon will affect\nportions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico \nduring the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life- \nthreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the\nNational Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 88W, north of 05N. It is \nproducing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental \nconditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, \nand a tropical depression is likely to form well south of \nsouthern Mexico by the middle or latter half of the week as the \nsystem moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. There\nis a low chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 \nhours, and a high chance through next 7 days.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 06N90W to 10N95W, then\nresumes near 12N120W to 10N130W. The ITCZ continues from 10N130W\nto beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 00N to 10N E of 95W to the coast of\nColombia. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 00N to \n06N W of 95W.  \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nMajor Hurricane Simon.\nThe remnants of Rachel is bringing heavy rains and gusty winds \nto portions of the Southwestern United States. The last public \nadvisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center on this \nsystem at 11/1500 UTC. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas on \nthe southern side of the remnants of Rachel are impacting the \nnorthern Gulf of California. Wind flow around the system is also \nforcing fresh gap winds over portions of the central Gulf of \nCalifornia as well as over the waters west of Baja California \nNorte. Rough to very rough seas generated by Rachel continue to \npropagate across the waters west of the Baja California peninsula.\nModerate to fresh N winds are blowing across the Tehuantepec area\nwith seas of 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, outside of the areas impacted \nby Hurricane Simon, moderate or weaker winds and slight to \nmoderate seas prevail. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Simon will move to 19.9N 105.6W \nthis evening, 20.5N 106.0W Mon morning, 21.1N 106.4W Mon \nevening, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.8N 106.8W Tue \nmorning, 22.5N 106.9W Tue evening, and 23.0N 106.9W Wed morning. \nSimon will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland \nnear 23.9N 106.4W early Thu. The remnants of Rachel will \ncontinue to support fresh to strong SW winds across the northern \nGulf of California through early Mon morning. Winds and seas \nlingering west of the Baja California peninsula will gradually \ndiminish through early this week. Moderate to fresh N winds will \npersist in the Tehuantepec region through the middle of the week.\nElsewhere, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far \neastern East Pacific are associated with a tropical wave. \nEnvironmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual\ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is likely to form well \nsouth of southern Mexico by the middle or latter half of the week\nas the system moves generally west- northwestward at around 10 \nkt.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail over the \nPapagayo region. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are\nelsewhere N of 04N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and \nmoderate seas in SW swell prevail S of 04N. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate\nor lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast \nwaters through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh NE to E\nwinds are expected in the Papagayo region tonight and Mon.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricane Simon.\nA cold front is moving across the NE waters followed by moderate\nto fresh northerly winds and rough seas. Similar marine conditions\nare noted elsewhere N of 20N W of 110W. Moderate or lighter \nwinds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the\nforecast area.\nFor the forecast, as Rachel continues to move over the southwest\nUnited States, the cold front will remain over the northern forecast\nwaters today, reaching from the northern Baja California to near\n22N125W on Mon while gradually dissipating. Large SW swell will \ncontinue to affect the waters S of the Equator and west of 105W \nover the next couple of days. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217868450107949059", "issued": "2026-10-11T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217868450107949059"}