{"msg": "325\nAXNT20 KNHC 111014\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Sun Oct 11 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1000 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 19N, \nmoving westward at 10-15 kt. A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed \nalong the wave and monsoon trough near 13N27W. The broad system \nis producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, mainly \nfrom 06N to 17N and between 22W and 36W. \nAnother eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W, south of \n19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated \nstrong convection is observed from 08N to 17N and between 33W and\n45W.\nA western Caribbean tropical wave is along 88W, south of 19N, \nmoving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave continues to interact with \nan upper-level low over the NW Caribbean, and is supporting \nscattered moderate to isolated strong convection over much of the \nNW Caribbean. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues \nsouthwestward to a 1010 mb low near 14N27W, to a 1011 mb low near\n10N41W and to 06N46W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 05N52W.\nAside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, \nscattered moderate convection noted long the monsoon trough and E\nof 24W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA cold front extends from 30N84W to 25N97W, then becomes \nstationary to 23N97W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is found ahead of the front over the eastern Gulf \nwaters. A pair of surface troughs are analyzed S of the front\nacross the southwestern portion of the basin. Scattered showers \nare also evident near these troughs.\nThe moderate pressure gradient between the high pressure over the\nsouthern United States and the aforementioned cold front support \nmoderate to fresh easterly winds over much of the NW and north- \ncentral Gulf, along with moderate seas. Elsewhere, moderate or \nlighter winds and moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, fresh SW winds, moderate seas, and scattered \nthunderstorms will persist over the NE Gulf through today. The \nfront will move across the southeast Gulf through mid week. High \npressure will build behind the front over the north-central Gulf,\nsupporting E to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida \nStraits to the Texas coast by mid week, and gentle breezes and \nslight seas elsewhere. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active\ntropical wave in the western Caribbean.\nHigh pressure north of the islands extends into the Caribbean, \nforcing moderate to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to \nlocally rough seas across much of the basin. The strongest winds \nand highest seas are found off Colombia. A broad upper-level low \npaired with an induced surface trough approaching the Leeward \nIslands is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the \neastern Caribbean, affecting much of the Lesser Antilles.\nFor the forecast, the surface trough will maintain unsettled \nweather across the NE Caribbean through today. High pressure north\nof the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds and \nmoderate seas across the eastern and central Caribbean through the\nearly part of the week, with fresh to strong E winds and rough \nseas across the Windward Passage and off Colombia. These winds and\nseas will diminish through mid week as the high pressure shifts \neastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Gulf. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N48W and \ncontinues southwestward to 28N54W, then becomes stationary to \n31N70W. A few showers are noted near these boundaries. Meanwhile, \nshowers and isolated thunderstorms are evident off NE Florida \nahead of a cold front moving across the eastern Gulf of America. \nThe modest pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the NW \nAtlantic and the aforementioned front and a trough north of the \nLeeward Islands sustain moderate to locally strong anticyclonic \nwinds over much of the SW North Atlantic, west of 60W and north of\nthe front west of 50W.\nThe remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the \ninfluence of a 1025 mb high pressure located just SE of the \nAzores. The pressure gradient between its associated ridge and \nlower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough supports \nmoderate to locally strong NE to E winds N of the monsoon trough \nto about 26N and east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds\nand moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move off the NE\nFlorida coast early Mon, reach from 31N75W to near Jupiter Inlet,\nFlorida by early Tue, and then stall and dissipate from Bermuda \nto the Upper Florida Keys by early Wed. Fresh N winds and \nbuilding seas may follow another front reaching along 30N east of \n75W by late Thu night.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217800705197867011", "issued": "2026-10-11T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217800705197867011"}