{"msg": "663\nAXPZ20 KNHC 110913\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Sun Oct 11 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0830 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Simon is centered near 18.7N 105.2W at 11/0900 UTC,\nmoving north-northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 930 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 135 kt with\ngusts to 165 kt. Peak seas are near 30 ft. Numerous moderate to \nscattered strong convection is within 60 nm of center. Scattered \nmoderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 15N to \n21N between 101W and 111W. The hurricane has turned north- \nnorthwest at about 5 kt. This motion is expected to continue \ntoday, bringing the core of the hurricane along the coast of \nsouthwestern Mexico. Some weakening should start soon due to the\nhurricane's close proximity to land. However, Simon is still \nexpected to be an extremely dangerous hurricane as it passes near\nsouthwestern Mexico today. Catastrophic wind and life-threatening\nstorm surge impacts are likely along a portion of the west- \ncentral coast of Mexico. Simon is expected to produce rainfall \ntotals of 10 to 20 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico. \nThis rainfall will produce life- threatening flooding and \nmudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated\nby Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and \nwest- central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are \nlikely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the\nNational Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 88W, north of 02N. The wave \nis producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. \nEnvironmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual\ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is likely to form well \nsouth of southern Mexico by the middle or latter half of next \nweek as the system moves generally west- northwestward at around \n10 mph. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone development in\nthe next 48 hours, and a high chance for development in the next\n7 days.  \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N92W to 12N101W, \nthen resumes near 16N120W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate\nand isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 12N between\n80W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to\n05N between 110W and 130W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nMajor Hurricane Simon.\nPost- Tropical Cyclone Rachel has moved north of the area. Fresh\nto near- gale force winds on the southern side of the system are\nimpacting the northern Gulf of California. Wind flow around the\nsystem is also forcing fresh to strong gap winds over portions \nof the central Gulf of California as well as fresh to strong \nwinds over the waters west of Baja California Norte. Rough to \nvery rough seas generated by Rachel continue to impact the waters\nwest of the Baja California peninsula. Elsewhere, moderate or \nweaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Simon is near 18.7N 105.2W at 2 AM \nPDT, and is moving north-northwest at 5 kt. Maximum sustained \nwinds are 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt, and the minimum central \npressure is 930 mb. Simon will move to 19.5N 105.4W this \nafternoon, 20.5N 105.7W Mon morning, 21.2N 106.0W Mon afternoon, \nweaken to a tropical storm near 22.0N 106.3W Tue morning, inland \nto 23.2N 106.2W Tue afternoon, and dissipate Wed morning. Post- \nTropical Cyclone Rachel has moved north of the area. Fresh to \nstrong winds will linger over the northern Gulf of California \nthrough early Mon. Winds and seas lingering west of the Baja \nCalifornia peninsula will gradually diminish through early this \nweek. Elsewhere, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the \nfar eastern East Pacific are associated with a tropical wave. \nEnvironmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual\ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is likely to form well \nsouth of southern Mexico by the middle or latter half of next \nweek as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around \n10 mph. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail over the \nPapagayo region. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are\nelsewhere N of 04N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and \nmoderate seas in SW swell prevail S of 04N. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate\nor lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast \nwaters through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh NE to E\nwinds are expected in the Papagayo region tonight and Mon.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricane Simon.\nModerate to fresh winds and rough seas are noted N of 20N W of \n115W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas \nprevail. \nFor the forecast, as Rachel moves over the southwest United States,\na cold front is forecast to extend across the northern forecast \nwaters today. Fresh N to NE winds and rough seas, in long period\nnortherly swell, will follow the front forecast to reach from \nthe northern Baja California to near 22N125W on Mon while \ngradually dissipating. Large SW swell will continue to affect the\nwaters S of the Equator and west of 105W over the next couple of\ndays. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217788632097718275", "issued": "2026-10-11T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217788632097718275"}