{"id": "1217786038136635395", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-11T09:00:00Z", "msg": "106\nWTPZ45 KNHC 110859\nTCDEP5\n \nHurricane Simon Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026\n300 AM CST Sun Oct 11 2026\n\nThe Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters provided some valuable \ninformation on the structure of Simon overnight.  They found \nthat the pressure had dropped to 928 mb, with maximum flight-level \nwinds of 135 kt within the small inner core.  Similar to the \nafternoon flight, the whole wind field could not be observed. The \ninitial intensity is kept at 135 kt for this advisory as a blend of \nthe flight-level wind data, assuming a larger undersampling factor \nthan normal, with a slight weight on earlier experimental Synthetic \nAperture Radar (SAR) data, which showed category 5 strength. \n\nThe hurricane has turned north-northwest at about 5 kt.  This \nmotion is expected to continue today, bringing the core of the \nhurricane along the coast of southwestern Mexico.  While some of \nthe models have shifted more offshore later today, it is simply too \nclose to call whether landfall will occur.  Regardless of the exact \ntrack, dangerous wind, surge, and rainfall effects appear likely \nover portions of west-central Mexico today in the Hurricane Warning \narea.  After today, the model guidance is in poor agreement on what \nhappens due to a weak ridge building just north of the cyclone.  \nWhile the new forecast is nudged westward, it is east of the bulk \nof the model guidance, and we are just going to have to wait and \nsee how much the high terrain of the Sierra Madre mountains affects \nthe hurricane before having any significant forecast confidence.  \n\nSome weakening should start soon due to the hurricane's close \nproximity to land, and recent satellite imagery could be indicative \nof that trend.  However, Simon is still expected to be an extremely \ndangerous hurricane as it passes near southwestern Mexico today.  \nThe intensity forecast is extremely sensitive to how close Simon \npasses to western Mexico during the next day or so.  With the \nforecast shifting somewhat offshore in a day or two, the weakening \nrate is lowered some from the last advisory.  This is a very low \nconfidence forecast because only a small deviation either east or \nwest could result in the hurricane rapidly dissipating after \nlandfall or keeping more strength offshore.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge impacts are\nlikely along a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a\nHurricane Warning is in effect from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito.\nPreparations to protect life and property should be rushed to\ncompletion.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of\nsouthwestern Mexico through this weekend. This rainfall will produce\nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of\nsteep terrain.\n \n3. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central\ncoast of Mexico over the next few days. These swells are likely to\ncause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please\nconsult products from your local weather office.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  11/0900Z 18.7N 105.2W  135 KT 155 MPH...NEAR COAST\n 12H  11/1800Z 19.5N 105.4W  125 KT 145 MPH...NEAR COAST\n 24H  12/0600Z 20.5N 105.7W   90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR COAST\n 36H  12/1800Z 21.2N 106.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  13/0600Z 22.0N 106.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  13/1800Z 23.2N 106.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}