{"id": "1217785637001101315", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-11T09:00:00Z", "msg": "936\nWTPZ43 KNHC 110857\nTCDEP3\n \nPost-Tropical Cyclone Rachel Discussion Number  57\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n200 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026\n\nThe bulk of the heavy rainfall is generally on the northern side of \nRachel, consistent with extratropical transition, as it continues to \nmove farther inland. The current intensity of 45 kt is based on a \nblend of a recent ASCAT pass and guidance from the global models, \nwith the strongest winds located well to the southeast over the \nnorthern Gulf of California. \n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 010/22 kt, and \nthe system is expected to accelerate as it moves farther inland. \nThe current NHC track was slightly adjusted westward based on the \nglobal models. Rachel is expected to steadily weaken over land\nduring the day and dissipate by tonight. However, the remnants of \nRachel will continue to produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over \nparts of the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. \nSee products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and local \nNational Weather Service offices for more information. \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of northern \nBaja California and portions of northwestern Mexico, where Tropical \nStorm Warnings are in effect. Tropical storm conditions are also \npossible in eastern Baja California, and portions of northwestern \nMexico where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect.\n \n2. Damaging wind gusts, especially in areas of higher terrain, are \nforecast to spread farther inland over portions of northwestern \nMexico and interior portions of the southwestern United States \ntoday.\n \n3. Heavy rains from the post tropical remnants of Rachel will \ncontinue to spread from the northern Baja Peninsula into Southern \nCalifornia, the Great Basin and portions of the southwestern United \nStates. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and for \nthe potential for significant flash and urban flooding today.\n \n4. Waves generated by Rachel, combined with an incoming long-period \nsoutherly swell, will produce life-threatening surf and rip current \nconditions along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja \nCalifornia. Major coastal flooding has already been occurring in \nsome areas, with observed water levels running as much as 1.5 feet \nabove predictions. Coastal flooding and erosion are expected to \nworsen this morning as the highest waves associated with Rachel \ncoincide with high tides and already elevated water levels. \nHazardous coastal conditions are expected to continue into early \nnext week. Please consult products from your local weather office.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  11/0900Z 32.9N 116.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 12H  11/1800Z 36.1N 115.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 24H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}