{"msg": "116\nAXNT20 KNHC 110331\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Sun Oct 11 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0325 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, south of 19N,\nmoving westward at 10-15 kt. A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed\nalong the wave and monsoon trough near 12N28W. The broad system \nis producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, mainly \nfrom 07N to 17N and between 20W and 33W. A recent scatterometer \nsatellite pass showed fresh to strong cyclonic winds associated \nwith this feature.\nAnother eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W, south of 19N,\nmoving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong\nconvection is observed from 06N to 16N and between 33W and 46W.\nA western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W, south of 19N,\nmoving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave continues to interact with \nan upper-level low over the NW Caribbean, and is supporting \nscattered moderate to isolated strong convection over much of the\nNW Caribbean. Diurnal heating and the features described are also\nenhancing convection over Central America.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of\nMauritania near 17N16W and continues southwestward to a 1011 mb \nlow near 12N28W and then to a 1012 mb low near 10N40W and to\n07N44W. The ITCZ extends from 07N44W to 05N52W. Aside from the \nconvection associated with the tropical waves, convection is \nlimited elsewhere. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA cold front extends from the Florida panhandle near Apalachicola\nsouth and southwest to 24N90W and 23N97W. Scattered moderate to\nisolated strong convection is found ahead of the front over the\neastern Gulf waters. A surface trough is analyzed over Yucatan and\nextending northward to 25N86W. A few showers are also evident near\nthese trough, however, the strongest convection is occurring over\nthe Yucatan peninsula.\nThe moderate pressure gradient between the high pressure over the\nsouthern United States and the aforementioned cold front support \nmoderate to locally fresh easterly winds over much of the NW and \nnorth- central Gulf, along with moderate seas. Elsewhere, moderate\nor lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, fresh SW winds and scattered thunderstorms will\npersist over the NE Gulf through tonight. The aforementioned front\nwill move across the southeast Gulf through mid week, while \nlifting northward as a dissipating warm front over the western \nGulf. High pressure will build behind the front over the north- \ncentral Gulf, supporting E to SE winds and moderate seas from the \nFlorida Straits to the Texas coast by mid week, and gentle breezes\nand slight seas elsewhere. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active\ntropical wave in the western Caribbean.\nHigh pressure north of the islands extends into the Caribbean, \nforcing moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds and\nmoderate to locally rough seas across much of the basin. The\nstrongest winds and highest seas are found off Colombia. A broad \nupper-level low approaching the Leeward Islands is producing\nscattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean,\naffecting much of the Lesser Antilles.\nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas\nwill persist across the eastern and central Caribbean through the\nearly part of the week, with fresh to strong E winds and rough \nseas across the Windward Passage and off Colombia. These winds and\nseas will diminish through mid week as the high pressure shifts \neastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Gulf. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N49W and continues\nsouthwestward to 28N55W, followed by a stationary front to 26N61W\nand then northwestward to 31N69W. A few showers are noted near \nthese boundaries. Meanwhile, showers and isolated thunderstorms\nare evident off NE Florida ahead of a cold front moving across the\neastern Gulf of America. The modest pressure gradient between a\nstrong ridge over the NW Atlantic and the aforementioned front and\na trough north of the Leeward Islands sustain moderate to locally\nstrong anticyclonic winds over much of the SW North Atlantic, west\nof 60W and north of the front west of 50W.\nThe remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the \ninfluence of a 1025 mb high pressure located just SE of the \nAzores. The pressure gradient between its associated ridge and \nlower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough supports \nmoderate to locally strong NE to E winds N of the monsoon trough \nto about 26N and east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds\nand moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move off the NE \nFlorida coast early Mon, reach from 31N75W to near Jupiter Inlet, \nFlorida by early Tue, and then stall and dissipate from Bermuda to\nthe Upper Florida Keys by early Wed. Looking ahead, fresh N winds\nand building seas may follow another front reaching along 30N \neast of 75W by late Thu night.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217721398193553411", "issued": "2026-10-11T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217721398193553411"}