{"msg": "101\nAXPZ20 KNHC 110248\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Sun Oct 11 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0230 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Simon is centered near 18.2N 104.8W at 11/0300 UTC,\nmoving north at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 928\nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt.\nPeak seas are near 30 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong \nconvection is within 60 nm of center. Scattered moderate to \nisolated strong convection is elsewhere from 13N to 21N between \n101W and 111W. Simon is moving slowly northward. A slightly \nfaster northward or north-northwestward motion is expected later \ntonight, and the major hurricane will either make landfall or \nskirt the coast of west-central Mexico on Sunday. Fluctuations in\nintensity are anticipated tonight, but Simon is still forecast \nto approach the coast of west-central Mexico as a major hurricane\non Sunday. Rapid weakening could occur if the core of Simon \nmoves fully onshore by Monday. the hurricane is expected to \nproduce rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches over portions of \nsouthwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches \npossible across portions of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco \nthrough Sunday. This rainfall will produce life- threatening \nflooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. \nSwells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of \nsouthwestern and west- central Mexico during the next few days. \nThese swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip \ncurrent conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the\nNational Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Rachel is centered near 30.0N 116.5W at\n11/0300 UTC, moving north-northeast at 31 kt. Estimated minimum\ncentral pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50\nkt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Scattered \nmoderate convection is over forecast waters N of center between \n116W and 119W. Rachel is expected to make landfall along the \ncoast of northern Baja California later tonight. Rachel and its \nmoisture will continue to spread over portions of the Southwest \nUnited States and northern Baja California peninsula. This will \nlead to increasing coverage of rainfall and for the potential for\nsignificant flash and urban flooding this weekend. Rachel will \nbring 1 to 3 inches of rain to portions of Baja California this \nweekend. Waves generated by Rachel will continue to build along \nthe coasts of Southern California and northern Baja California \ntoday. These waves, combined with an incoming long-period \nsoutherly swell, will cause life-threatening surf and rip current\nconditions. Coastal flooding and erosion are expected to worsen \ntonight into Sunday morning as the highest waves coincide with \nthe high tides and water levels that are already running well \nabove predicted levels. Moderate to major coastal flooding is \nexpected, with hazardous coastal conditions continuing into early\nnext week. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 08N91W to 13N100W, \nthen resumes near 16N119W to beyond 10N140W. In addition to the \nconvection associated with Rachel and Simon, scattered moderate \nand isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 07N between\n83W and 130W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to\n12N between 134W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nMajor Hurricane Simon and Post Tropical Cyclone Rachel.\nOutside of the areas impacted by Simon and Rachel, a weak pressure\ngradient dominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters,\nsupporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.\nA recent scatterometer pass indicated N winds of 15 kt across the\nTehuantepec region and downwind to about 14N. Seas are 6 to 7 ft\nwith these winds.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Simon is near 18.2N 104.8W at 8 PM PDT, \nand is moving north at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 135 kt \nwith gusts to 165 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 928 mb.\nSimon will move to 19.1N 105.0W Sun morning, 20.1N 105.3W Sun \nevening, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.1N 105.5W Mon \nmorning, 22.0N 105.6W Mon evening, move inland and weaken to a \ntropical depression near 23.0N 105.9W Tue morning, and dissipate \nTue evening. Meanwhile, Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel is near \n30.0N 116.5W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving north-northeast at 31 kt.\nMaximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the \nminimum central pressure is 987 mb. Rachel will move to 34.5N \n114.9W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun evening. Expect increasing\nwinds and building seas over the northern Gulf of California \ntonight into Sun as Rachel approaches Baja California Norte. \nAn area of low pressure is forecast to develop south or \nsouthwest of the coast of Mexico by early next week. \nEnvironmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual\ndevelopment thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to \nform by the middle or latter half of next week as the system \nmoves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. This system \nhas a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLight to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are noted N \nof 04N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas in \nSW swell prevail S of 04N. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate\nor lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast \nwaters through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh NE to E\nwinds are expected in the Papagayo region Sun night and Mon. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nPost Tropical Cyclone Rachel and Major Hurricane Simon.\nOutside of the influence of Rachel, moderate to fresh winds and \nrough seas are noted N of 20N W of 115W. Elsewhere, moderate or \nlighter winds and moderate seas prevail. \nFor the forecast, as Rachel moves over the southwest United States,\na cold front is forecast to extend across the northern forecast \nwaters on Sun. Fresh N to NE winds and rough seas, in long period\nnortherly swell, will follow the front forecast to reach from \nthe northern Baja California to near 22N125W on Mon while gradually\ndissipating. Large SW swell will continue to affect the waters S\nof the Equator and west of 105W over the next couple of days. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217712907371905027", "issued": "2026-10-11T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217712907371905027"}