{"id": "1217712094855036931", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-11T03:00:00Z", "msg": "002\nWTPZ43 KNHC 110243\nTCDEP3\n \nPost-Tropical Cyclone Rachel Discussion Number  56\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n800 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026\n \nRachel has lacked organized deep convection for more than 12 hours,\nwith much of the forcing associated with the system now driven by a\nnearby mid- to upper-level trough rather than tropical processes. In\naddition, the low-level circulation has become increasingly\nelongated, and the center is no longer well-defined. Given these\nstructural changes and the lack of organized deep convection, Rachel\nis now classified as a post-tropical cyclone. Based on these data,\nand a previous ASCAT-B scatterometer pass earlier today, the initial\nintensity was lowered to 50 kt.\n \nThe initial motion is estimated to be north-northeastward, or 015/31\nkt, and the system is expected to accelerate as it moves inland. The\nupdated NHC track forecast was nudged eastward a bit, but otherwise\nclosely mirrors the previous forecast and aligns well with the\nlatest HCCA and GDMI consensus aids.\n \nRachel is now a post-tropical cyclone, but that does not mean the\nthreat has diminished. Watches and warnings remain unchanged for\nMexico and Southern California, since expected impacts from the\nsystem remain the same and the remnants of Rachel will continue to\nproduce heavy rainfall and gusty winds. See products issued by the\nWeather Prediction Center and local National Weather Service offices\nfor more information.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Rachel is expected to make landfall along the coast of northern\nBaja California later tonight. Tropical storm conditions are\nexpected in portions of northern Baja California and portions of\nnorthwestern Mexico, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.\nTropical storm conditions are also possible in extreme Southern\nCalifornia, eastern Baja California, and portions of northwestern\nMexico where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect.\n \n2. Damaging wind gusts associated with Rachel and its remnants are\nexpected to spread over portions of northwestern Mexico and interior\nportions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of\nhigher terrain, tonight and Sunday.\n \n3. Rachel and its moisture will continue to spread over portions of\nthe Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula.\nThis will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and for the\npotential for significant flash and urban flooding this weekend.\n \n4. Waves generated by Rachel, combined with an incoming long-period\nsoutherly swell, will produce life-threatening surf and rip current\nconditions along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja\nCalifornia. Major coastal flooding has already been occurring in\nsome areas, with observed water levels running as much as 1.5 feet\nabove predictions. Coastal flooding and erosion are expected to\nworsen tonight into Sunday morning as the highest waves associated\nwith Rachel coincide with high tides and already elevated water\nlevels. Hazardous coastal conditions are expected to continue into\nearly next week. Please consult products from your local weather\noffice.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  11/0300Z 30.0N 116.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 12H  11/1200Z 34.5N 114.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 24H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}