{"id": "1217710128539140099", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-11T03:00:00Z", "msg": "745\nWTPZ45 KNHC 110233\nTCDEP5\n \nHurricane Simon Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026\n900 PM CST Sat Oct 10 2026\n \nThe compact core of very dangerous Hurricane Simon is inching toward\nwest-central Mexico. The northern eyewall is only about 30 n mi off\nthe coast, and conditions are expected to quickly deteriorate later\ntonight. The major hurricane appears to be getting stronger and has\na distinct and small eye, surrounded by symmetric and intense deep\nconvection. The initial intensity is nudged up to 135 kt, near the\nupper end of the latest satellite estimates. The Air Force Hurricane\nHunters are scheduled to investigate the system in a few hours, and\nthe data they collect will be very helpful to better assess Simon's\nintensity and structure.\n \nSimon has been crawling northward, with the latest initial motion\nestimated to be 360/4 kt. A slightly faster northward or\nnorth-northwestward motion is expected later tonight, and the major\nhurricane will either make landfall or skirt the coast of\nwest-central Mexico on Sunday. The models remain inconsistent in\nshowing whether landfall will occur or not. Regardless, significant\nor catastrophic wind, surge, and rainfall appears likely over\nportions of west-central Mexico later tonight and Sunday.\n \nFluctuations in strength are expected until the core of Simon\nreaches the coast. Rapid weakening is forecast once the system\ninteracts with land, and it could weaken at a much faster pace if it\nmoves to the east of the official track. Due to the complexity of\nhow much land Simon will interacts with, the intensity forecast is\nof low confidence.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge impacts are\nlikely along a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a\nHurricane Warning is in effect from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito.\nPreparations to protect life and property should be rushed to\ncompletion.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of\nsouthwestern Mexico through this weekend. This rainfall will produce\nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of\nsteep terrain.\n \n3. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central\ncoast of Mexico over the next few days. These swells are likely to\ncause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please\nconsult products from your local weather office.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  11/0300Z 18.2N 104.8W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 12H  11/1200Z 19.1N 105.0W  135 KT 155 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\n 24H  12/0000Z 20.1N 105.3W  100 KT 115 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\n 36H  12/1200Z 21.1N 105.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\n 48H  13/0000Z 22.0N 105.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\n 60H  13/1200Z 23.0N 105.9W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 72H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}