{"msg": "593\nAXNT20 KNHC 102308\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Sat Oct 10 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is added to the 1800 UTC surface map along 27W S\nof 20N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is \nnoted from 08N to 13N between 20W and 30W. \nAnother tropical wave is along 35W, south of 18N, moving westward\nat about 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is\nobserved from 07N to 15N between 30W and 43W. \nA tropical wave is over the NW Caribbean along 84W, south of \n20N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. This wave continues to interact \nwith an upper-level low over the NW Caribbean, and is producing \nscattered moderate to isolated strong convection S of 18N\nbetween 80W and 85W. the wave is enhancing convection over much\nof Central America. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of\nSenegal near 14N17W and continues westward to 12N27W to 08N46W. \nThe ITCZ extends from 08N46W to NE Venezuela near 08.5N61W. Aside\nfrom the convection associated with the tropical waves, convection\nis limited elsewhere. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nFlash flooding risk continues with Post-tropical cyclone Isaias \nas it moves trough the SE of the United States. It is located\nabout 4 nm W of Birmingham, Alabama at 2100 UTC. A cold front \nhas formed over the central Gulf, extending from Isaias through \nthe western Florida Panhandle to near 24N96W. Divergence aloft \nand tropical moisture embedded in southerly flow sustain a 90 nm \nwide line of showers and thunderstorms from the Florida Big Bend \nto near 23N87W. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas of 6 to\n9 ft are occurring along and E of this line of weather. Moderate\nN to NE winds are in the wake of the front, with moderate to rough\nseas. Dry air follows the front. \nFor the forecast, fresh SW winds, locally rough seas, and scattered\nthunderstorms will persist over the NE Gulf through tonight. \nLarge NE swell will persist over the west-central Gulf into the \novernight hours. The cold front will move across the southeast \nGulf through mid week, while lifting northward as a dissipating \nwarm front over the western Gulf. Looking ahead, high pressure \nwill build behind the front over the north-central Gulf, supporting\nE to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the \nTexas coast by mid week, and gentle breezes and slight seas \nelsewhere. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active\ntropical wave in the western Caribbean.\nA very modest pressure gradient continues across the basin as \nhigh pressure is centered well N and NE of the region. The current\npattern is forcing moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate\nseas to 7 ft across much of the central Caribbean, with fresh to\nlocally strong winds offshore Colombia. Moderate E winds with \nmoderate seas prevail across the eastern Caribbean, while gentle \nto moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas are seen across \nthe NW part of the basin.\nFor the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support \nmoderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas across the \neastern and central Caribbean through the early part of the week,\nwith fresh to strong E winds and rough seas across the Windward \nPassage and off Colombia. These winds and seas will diminish \nthrough mid week as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a \ncold front moving through the Gulf. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA cold front enters the central Atlantic waters near 31N51W and \ncontinues southwestward to 29N55W, where it becomes a stationary\nfront to 31N68W and then remains north of the area and into \nSouth Carolina. A diffluent pattern aloft and tropical moisture \npushed northward by former Isaias sustain scattered showers and \nisolated thunderstorms N of 24N and W of 75W. Moderate to fresh \neasterly winds prevail S of 24N between 60W and 70W and then veer\nSE to S through the Bahamas and the waters W of 70W. Seas are \ngenerally 4 to 6 ft across this area. An upper-level low is\nspinning just E of the Lesser Antilles, producing scattered \nshowers and thunderstorms. A surface trough is analyzed from \n27N55W to 21N58W and continues to produce some convective\nactivity. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under\nthe influence of a 1027 mb high pressure located just E of the \nAzores. The pressure gradient between its associated ridge and \nlower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough supports \nmoderate to fresh to strong NE to E winds N of the monsoon \ntrough to about 22N and E of 35W to the coast of W Africa. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move off the NE \nFlorida coast early Mon, reach from 31N75W to near Jupiter Inlet,\nFlorida by early Tue, and then stall and dissipate from Bermuda \nto the Upper Florida Keys by early Wed. Looking ahead, fresh N \nwinds and building seas may follow another front reaching along \n30N east of 75W by late Thu night.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217669642809933827", "issued": "2026-10-10T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217669642809933827"}