{"msg": "987\nAXPZ20 KNHC 102203\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Sat Oct 10 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nMajor Hurricane Simon is centered near 17.6N 104.8W at 10/2100 UTC,\nmoving north at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 932\nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt. \nPeak seas are near 30 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong \nconvection is within 60 nm N and 90 nm S semicircles. Scattered \nmoderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 12N to\n21N between 102W and 108W. Simon has resumed a slow motion toward \nthe north near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion is expected\nto continue through the weekend. On the forecast track, Simon is\nexpected to be near or just inland of the west-central coast of \nMexico on Sunday before moving further inland on Monday. Simon \nis a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind \nScale. Fluctuations in intensity are anticipated tonight, but \nSimon is still forecast to approach the coast of west-central \nMexico as a major hurricane on Sunday. Rapid weakening could \noccur if the core of Simon moves fully onshore by Monday. the\nhurricane is expected to produce rainfall totals of 10 to 20 \ninches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated \nmaximum totals of 30 inches possible across portions of \nMichoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Sunday. This rainfall will\nproduce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in \nareas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Simon will affect \nportions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico \nduring the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-\nthreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the\nNational Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nTropical Storm Rachel is centered near 27.0N 118.3W at 10/2100\nUTC, moving north-northeast at 26 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with\ngusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are near 24 ft. Scattered moderate \nconvection is NE of center from 28N to 31N E of 120W. A northeastward\nto north-northeastward motion with a further increase in forward\nspeed is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the \ncenter of Rachel is expected to approach northern Baja California\ntoday and move onshore tonight. Rachel's post-tropical remnants \nwill then move across the southwestern United States on Sunday.\nSome weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, especially \nafter Rachel moves inland over Baja California. Rachel is likely \nto become post-tropical cyclone by Sunday morning. Rachel will \nbring 1 to 3 inches of rain to portions of Baja California this \nweekend. Waves generated by Rachel will continue to build along the\ncoasts of Southern California and northern Baja California today.\nThese waves, combined with an incoming long-period southerly swell,\nwill cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Coastal\nflooding and erosion are expected to worsen tonight into Sunday\nmorning as the highest waves coincide with the high tides and water\nlevels that are already running well above predicted levels.\nModerate to major coastal flooding is expected, with hazardous\ncoastal conditions continuing into early next week. Please consult\nproducts from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 07.5N78W to 08N83W to 11N91W, \nthen resumes near 12N124W to beyond 09N140W. In addition to the \nconvection associated with Rachel and Simon, scattered moderate \nand isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N E of 100W\nto the coast of Colombia, from 00N to 06N between 100W and 130W,\nand from 05N to 12N W of 130W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nMajor Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Rachel.\nOutside of the areas impacted by Simon and Rachel, a weak pressure\ngradient dominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters,\nsupporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.\nA recent scatterometer pass indicated N winds of 15 kt across the\nTehuantepec region and downwind to about 14N. Seas are 6 to 7 ft\nwith these winds.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Simon will move to 18.3N 104.9W Sun \nmorning, 19.4N 105.1W Sun afternoon, inland to 20.8N 105.2W Mon \nmorning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 21.9N \n105.2W Mon afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical \ndepression near 22.8N 105.1W Tue morning, and dissipate Tue \nafternoon. Meanwhile, Rachel will move to 30.4N 116.3W Sun morning, \nbecome post-tropical and move to 36.3N 114.1W Sun afternoon, and\ndissipate Mon morning. Expected increasing winds and building \nseas over the northern Gulf of California tonight into Sun as \nRachel approaches Baja California Norte. Gusty winds to minimal \ntropical storm force may occur. \nLooking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop south \nor southwest of the coast of Mexico by early next week. Environmental\nconditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development \nthereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the \nmiddle or latter half of next week as the system moves generally \nwest-northwestward at around 10 kt. This system has a high chance\nof tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLight to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are noted N \nof 04N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas in \nSW swell prevail S of 04N. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate\nor lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast \nwaters through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh Ne to E\nwinds are expected in the Papagayo region Sun night and Mon.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Rachel and Major Hurricane Simon.\nOutside of the influence of the tropical cyclones, fresh to strong\nN winds and rough seas are noted between Rachel and a ridge that\ndominates the NW part of the forecast region. These marine\nconditions are affecting mainly the waters N of 24N between 128W\nand 134W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas\nprevail. A couple of altimeter passes indicates rough seas in the\n8 to 10 ft range S of 05N between 110W and 120W.\nFor the forecast, as Rachel moves over the southwest United States,\na cold front is forecast to extend across the northern forecast \nwaters on Sun. Fresh N to NE winds and rough seas, in long period\nnortherly swell, will follow the front forecast to reach from \nthe northern Baja California to near 22N125W on Mon while gradually\ndissipating. Large SW swell will continue to affect the waters S\nof the Equator and west of 105W over the next couple of days. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217656947695779847", "issued": "2026-10-10T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217656947695779847"}