{"id": "1217642404359634951", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-10T21:00:00Z", "msg": "878\nWTPZ43 KNHC 102049\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number  55\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n200 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026\n\nRachel continues to trend toward transitioning to a post-tropical \nstorm. Convection remains shallow and has become further sheared \nwell northeast of the center due to strong southwesterly shear. A \n1731 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass showed an asymmetric system with \npeak winds of 48 kt located just west of the center. Based on this \ndata, the initial intensity was raised to 55 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be north-northeast, or 025/26 kt. \nA turn toward the north with an increase in forward speed is \nanticipated, as noted in the previous advisory. This change in the \nsteering flow is due to the storm's interaction with a mid-level \ncut-off low located to its northwest. The updated NHC track forecast \nwas nudged eastward initially, but otherwise closely mirrors the \nprevious track and aligns with the latest HCCA aid.\n \nRachel has undergone slight intensification since the previous \nadvisory, likely due to its interaction with an upper-level trough. \nThe storm is forecast to degrade further given its hostile \nenvironment, specifically because of strong southwesterly shear. \nRachel is anticipated to move inland just after 12 h and become \npost-tropical by 24 h. The new intensity forecast is largely \nunchanged.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Rachel is expected to make landfall along the coast of northern \nBaja California at tropical storm strength tonight. Tropical storm \nconditions are expected in portions of Baja California and northern \nBaja California Sur, Mexico, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in \neffect. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in extreme \nSouthern California, eastern Baja California, and portions of \nnorthwestern Mexico where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect.\n \n2. Damaging wind gusts associated with Rachel and its remnants are\nexpected to spread over portions of northwestern Mexico and interior\nportions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of\nhigher terrain, tonight and Sunday.\n \n3. Rachel and its moisture will continue to spread over portions of\nthe Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula.\nThis will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and for the\npotential for significant flash and urban flooding this weekend.\n \n4. Waves generated by Rachel, combined with an incoming long-period\nsoutherly swell, will produce life-threatening surf and rip current\nconditions along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja\nCalifornia. Major coastal flooding has already been occurring in\nsome areas, with observed water levels running as much as 1.5 feet\nabove predictions. Coastal flooding and erosion are expected to\nworsen tonight into Sunday morning as the highest waves associated\nwith Rachel coincide with high tides and already elevated water\nlevels. Hazardous coastal conditions are expected to continue into\nearly next week. Please consult products from your local weather\noffice.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  10/2100Z 27.0N 118.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  11/0600Z 30.4N 116.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  11/1800Z 36.3N 114.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 36H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}