{"msg": "555\nAXNT20 KNHC 101700\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Sat Oct 10 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1600 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 18N, \nmoving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong \nconvection is observed from 07N to 13.5N between 29W and 37W. \nA western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W-84W, south of 22N,\nmoving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted  \nfrom 09N to 19.5N between 80W and 85W, as the wave continues to\ninteract with an upper level low center directly overhead.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of\nMauritania near 17.5N16W and continues southwestward to 11.5N26W\nto near 08.5N44W. The ITCZ extends from 09.5N51W to 10N63W. \nScattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is \noccurring from 06.5N to 17.5N E of 26W to the African coast, and \nfrom 07.5N to 14N between 37W and 46W. Scattered moderate\nconvection is noted from 08.5N to 10.5N between 60W and 63W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nPost-tropical cyclone Isaias is now over central Alabama moving\nnorthward. A cold front has formed over the central Gulf, \nextending from Isaias through the western Florida Panhandle to \nnear 25N93W. Divergence aloft and tropical moisture embedded in\nsoutherly flow sustain a 90 nm wide line of showers and \nthunderstorms from the Florida Big Bend near 30N83.5W to 24.5N87W.\nFresh to strong southerly winds are occurring along and E of this\nline of weather, and producing seas of 5 to 9 ft across the \nwaters from the line eastward to the Florida coastal waters, \nhighest well offshore of Tampa Bay. Dry air dominates the rest of \nthe basin allowing for generally fair weather conditions, except \nfor scattered showers across the Mexican coastal waters as \nmoderate cyclonic winds flow parallel to the coastline. NE swell \ngenerated from the western side of Isaias as it move inland last \nnight is propagating across the north central and western Gulf S \nof 28N, where sea are 6 to 10 ft, highest near 26.5N92W. \nFor the forecast, the remnants of Isaias will continue to move \nnorthward away from the area. Winds are rapidly diminishing across\nthe Gulf, and rough seas in S swell over the northeast Gulf will \ncontinue to subside this afternoon. Large NE swell over the west-\ncentral Gulf will subside through tonight. Cooler and drier air \nis wrapping around the remnant low of Isaias, developing a cold \nfront from near Destin, Florida to the central Gulf. This front \nwill move across the southeast Gulf through mid week, then \nlifting northward as a dissipating warm front over the western \nGulf. Looking ahead, high pressure will build behind the front \nover the north-central Gulf, supporting E to SE winds and moderate\nseas from the Florida Straits to the Texas coast by mid week, and\ngentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active\ntropical wave in the western Caribbean.\nA very modest pressure gradient continues across the basin today,\nas high pressure is centered well N and NE of the region. The\ncurrent pattern is forcing moderate to fresh easterly winds and \nmoderate seas to 7 ft across much of the central basin, with\nstrong winds along the coast of Colombia. Moderate E winds\nprevail across the eastern Caribbean, while gentle to moderate SE\nwinds and slight seas are seen across the NW basin.\nFor the forecast, high pressure well north of the area will \nsupport moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas across the\neastern and central Caribbean through the early part of the week,\nwith fresh to strong E winds and rough seas off Colombia. These \nwinds and seas will diminish through mid week as the high pressure\nshifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Gulf of\nAmerica.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA cold front enters the central Atlantic waters near 31N52W and \ncontinues southwestward to 26.5N62W, then continues as a \nstationary front to 31N70W and then remains north of the area \nand into South Carolina. Divergence aloft and tropical moisture \npushed northward by former Isaias sustain scattered showers and \nisolated thunderstorms N of 24N and W of 74.5W. Moderate to fresh\neasterly winds prevail S of 24N between 60W and 70W and then veer\nSE to S through the Bahamas and waters W of 70W. Seas are\ngenerally 4 to 6 ft across this area. A surface trough is \nanalyzed from 28N54W to 20N59W. An upper level low to its S and\nshifting W into the Lesser Antilles, and producing across moderate\nconvection from 10N to 20N between 48W and 62W. \nA broad 1028 mb high pressure system near the Azores extends\nsouthwestward to the surface trough along 56W and are combining \nto support moderate to locally strong NE to E winds and seas of \n6-9 ft north of the monsoon trough to 26N, and E of 50W. Moderate \nto fresh SW winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring south of the \nmonsoon trough and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker \nwinds and moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N53W to\n27N60W, then becomes a stationary front to 30N70W, and then a \nwarm front continues to the SC coast. Divergence aloft and \ntropical moisture results in scattered showers and isolated \nthunderstorms west of 74W. The cold front will continue to move \neast of the area through Mon, ahead of another cold front moving \noff the NE Florida coast early Mon. The front will reach from \n31N75W to near Jupiter Inlet, Florida by early Tue, and then start\nto stall and dissipate from Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by \nearly Wed. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217597397708865543", "issued": "2026-10-10T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217597397708865543"}