{"msg": "839\nAXPZ20 KNHC 101552\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Sat Oct 10 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nMajor Hurricane Simon is centered near 17.4N 104.8W at 10/1500 \nUTC, moving north at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is \n938 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 130 kt with gusts to 160 \nkt. Peak seas are near 30 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered \nstrong convection is within 60 nm N and 90 nm S semicircles.  \nScattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere \nfrom 13N to 21N between 101W and 108W. The hurricane is moving \ntoward the north, and this general motion is forecast to continue\nthrough the weekend. On the forecast track, Simon is expected to\nbe near or just inland of the west-central coast of Mexico on \nSunday. Simon is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson\nHurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening remains\npossible today, and Simon is forecast to approach the coast of\nwest-central Mexico as a major hurricane tonight or early\nSunday. An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to\ninvestigate the hurricane later today. Simon is expected to \nproduce rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches over portions of \nsouthwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches \npossible across portions of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco \nthrough Sunday. This rainfall will produce life-threatening \nflooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.\nSwells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast\nof southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days.\nThese swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip\ncurrent conditions. Please consult products from your local weather\noffice.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the\nNational Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nTropical Storm Rachel is centered near 25.5N 119.6W at 10/1500\nUTC, moving northeast at 19 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure\nis 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to \n60 kt. Peak seas are near 21 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated \nstrong convection is from 27N to 30N E of 121W. A northeastward \nto north-northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed \nis expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of \nRachel is expected to approach northern Baja California today and\nmove onshore tonight. Rachel's post-tropical remnants will then \nmove across the southwestern United States on Sunday. Tropical \nStorm conditions are expected to begin on the west coast of the \nBaja California peninsula by this evening. Some strengthening is \npossible through tonight, but rapid weakening is expected after \nRachel moves inland over Baja California and the southwestern \nUnited States on Sunday. Rachel is likely to become post-tropical\nby Sunday morning. Rachel will bring 1 to 3 inches of rain to \nportions of Baja California this weekend. Waves generated by Rachel \nwill continue to build along the coasts of Southern California \nand northern Baja California today. These waves, combined with an\nincoming long-period southerly swell, will cause life-threatening\nsurf and rip current conditions. Coastal flooding and erosion \nare expected to worsen tonight into Sunday morning as the highest\nwaves coincide with the high tides and water levels that are \nalready running well above predicted levels. Moderate to major \ncoastal flooding is expected, with hazardous coastal conditions \ncontinuing into early next week. Please consult products from \nyour local weather office.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 10N97W, then resumes \nnear 13N120W to beyond 10N140W. In addition to the convection \nassociated with Rachel and Simon, scattered moderate and isolated\nstrong convection is noted from 02N to 10N E of 130W to the coast\nof Colombia, and from 01N to 11N W of 130W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Rachel.\nOutside of the areas impacted by Simon and Rachel, a weak pressure\ngradient dominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters,\nsupporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Simon will move to 18.1N 105.0W this\nevening, 19.1N 105.2W Sun morning, inland to 20.4N 105.4W Sun \nevening, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 21.7N \n105.4W Mon morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression\nnear 23.0N 105.5W Mon evening, and dissipate Tue morning. Meanwhile,\nwill move to 28.2N 117.5W this evening, inland to 33.0N 115.3W \nSun morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near\n38.5N 112.5W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning. Expected \nincreasing winds and building seas over the northern Gulf of \nCalifornia tonight into Sun as Rachel approaches Baja California \nNorte. \nLooking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop \nsouth or southwest of the coast of Mexico by early next week. \nEnvironmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual\ndevelopment thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to \nform by the middle or latter half of next week as the system \nmoves generally west-northwestward at around 10 kt. This system \nhas a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLight to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are noted N \nof 02N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas in \nSW swell prevail S of 02N. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate\nor lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast \nwaters through the middle of next week. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Rachel and Major Hurricane Simon.\nOutside of the influence of Tropical Storm Rachel, moderate to \nfresh winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail N of 18N and W \nof 120W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, are noted \nelsewhere.\nFor the forecast, as Rachel moves over the southwest United \nStates, a cold front is forecast to extend across the northern \nforecast waters on Sun. Fresh N to NE winds and rough seas, in \nlong period northerly swell, will follow the front forecast to \nreach from the northern Gulf of california to near 20N140W on Mon\nwhile dissipating. Large SW swell will continue to affect the \nwaters S of the Equator and west of 105W over the next couple of \ndays. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217584040256864263", "issued": "2026-10-10T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217584040256864263"}