{"id": "1217572478079696903", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-10T15:00:00Z", "msg": "340\nWTPZ43 KNHC 101453\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number  54\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n800 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026\n \nRachel appears to be in the midst of its transition to a \npost-tropical storm. Convection is becoming shallower and is being \nsheared off to the northeast of the center due to 25-35 kt of \nsouthwesterly shear, and the system is taking on a \nfrontal structure with a drier air mass of stratocumulus \nclouds wrapping around the southern side of the circulation. Based \non the ASCAT-B scatterometer pass from overnight, the initial \nintensity is held at 50 kt.\n\nRachel has been moving a bit east of the previous track, and the \ncurrent motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 055/19 kt. A \nturn toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed \nis expected by tonight while Rachel interacts with a mid-level \ncut-off low located to its northwest. The track guidance is in good \nagreement that Rachel's center will move onshore the extreme \nnorthern portion of Baja California tonight, with the system \ncontinuing quickly north-northeastward across the southwestern U.S. \non Sunday. The new NHC track forecast has been nudged east of the \nprevious track and is close to the latest HCCA aid.\n \nModel-derived phase space diagrams indicate that Rachel now has an \nasymmetric, shallow warm-core structure and is likely to become \ndeeper cold core, and hence fully post tropical, in about 24 hours \nonce it has moved onshore. In the meantime, baroclinic interaction \nwith the upper-level trough could cause some slight intensification \nover the next 12 hours or so, which is supported by much of the \nintensity models. Weakening is expected after Rachel moves onshore, \nalthough strong gusty winds are likely across much of the \nsouthwestern U.S. through early next week as low pressure moves \ninto the Rocky Mountains. A 36-hour post-tropical point is provided \nfor continuity, but it's likely that the low will not have a \nwell-defined circulation by that point.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Rachel is expected to approach and move ashore along the coast of\nnorthern Baja California at tropical storm strength tonight. \nTropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Baja \nCalifornia and northern Baja California Sur, Mexico, where Tropical \nStorm Warnings are in effect. Tropical storm conditions are also \npossible in extreme Southern California, eastern Baja California, \nand portions of northwestern Mexico where Tropical Storm Watches are \nin effect.\n \n2. Damaging wind gusts associated with Rachel and its remnants are\nexpected to spread over portions of northwestern Mexico and interior\nportions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of\nhigher terrain, tonight and Sunday.\n \n3. Rachel and its moisture will continue to spread over portions of \nthe Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula. \nThis will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and for the \npotential for significant flash and urban flooding this weekend.\n \n4. Waves generated by Rachel, combined with an incoming long-period\nsoutherly swell, will produce life-threatening surf and rip current\nconditions along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja\nCalifornia. Major coastal flooding has already been occurring in\nsome areas, with observed water levels running as much as 1.5 feet\nabove predictions. Coastal flooding and erosion are expected to\nworsen tonight into Sunday morning as the highest waves associated\nwith Rachel coincide with high tides and already elevated water\nlevels. Hazardous coastal conditions are expected to continue into\nearly next week. Please consult products from your local weather\noffice.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  10/1500Z 25.5N 119.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  11/0000Z 28.2N 117.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  11/1200Z 33.0N 115.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 36H  12/0000Z 38.5N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 48H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}