{"msg": "619\nAXNT20 KNHC 101023\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Sat Oct 10 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1015 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W, south of 19N, \nmoving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong\nconvection is observed from 04N to 18N and east of 45W.\nA western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W, south of 20N, \nmoving westward at 10 kt. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms\nare present from 14N to 23N and between 75W and 82W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of\nMauritania near 16N17W and continues southwestward to near 09N46W.\nThe ITCZ extends from 09N46W to 07N59W. Scattered moderate to\nisolated strong convection is occurring from 10N to 17N and \nbetween 45W and 55W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nHurricane Isaias weakened quickly after making landfall and is now\nanalyzed as a post-tropical cyclone over central Alabama. A cold\nfront is forming over the eastern Gulf, extending from the low \npressure to near northern Yucatan. Divergence aloft and tropical \nmoisture sustain a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms from\nnorth of Tampa to just north of Yucatan. Dry air dominates the \nrest of the basin allowing for generally fair weather conditions. \nModerate to locally strong southerly winds are found ahead of the \ncold front, while moderate or weaker winds are noted behind the \nfront. Seas of 6-11 ft are found across much of the Gulf, with the\nhighest seas occurring in the NE Gulf. \nFor the forecast, the remnants of Isaias will continue to move \nnorthward away from the area. Strong winds over the NE Gulf and \nresidual rough seas over much of the basin will dissipate this \nevening. A surface trough over the eastern Gulf is producing a \nline of showers and thunderstorms. This trough will transition \ninto a cold front this morning and will move east of the basin on \nSun. Weak high pressure will develop over the north-central Gulf \nby Sun evening resulting in moderate or weaker easterly winds \nacross much of the basin through at least late next week. .\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active\ntropical wave in the western Caribbean.\nA 1023 mb high pressure system near Bermuda extends southward to\nthe Caribbean, forcing moderate to locally strong easterly winds\nand moderate seas across much of the central and eastern parts of\nthe basin. Moderate or lighter winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail\nelsewhere.  \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate\nto fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas across much of \nthe basin through the middle of next week. Winds will pulse to \nstrong speeds and seas will reach 9 ft at night through Sun night \nin the south- central Caribbean and Gulf of Venezuela. Strong \nwinds will also occur in the Windward Passage tonight. Meanwhile, \na tropical wave near 83W, in combination with an upper-level low, \nis producing scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 14N between \n75W and 80W. Unsettled weather conditions will remain associated \nwith this wave as it moves across the rest of the western \nCaribbean through the weekend. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N55W and\ncontinues southwestward to 27N65W, followed by a stationary front\nto just north of our area near 31N73W. Divergence aloft and\ntropical moisture pushed northward by former cyclone Isaias\nsustain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 74W.\nModerate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are evident\nacross the waters west of 55W. \nA broad 1033 mb high pressure system near the Azores and a \nsurface trough along 55W combine to support moderate to locally\nstrong easterly winds and seas of 5-9 ft north of the monsoon \ntrough and east of 55W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas\nof 5-8 ft are occurring south of the monsoon trough and east of\n30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas\nprevail.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, divergence aloft and tropical \nmoisture result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms \nwest of 72W. The aforementioned cold front will continue to move \nsoutheastward over the next few days. Building ridge over the \nwestern Atlantic will result in a tightening pressure gradient \nbehind the front generating fresh to strong NE-E winds and rough \nseas over the eastern waters, mainly N of 25N, Sun into Mon. Fresh\nto locally strong easterly winds are expected at night off \nHispaniola and into the Windward Passage through Sun. Looking \nahead, a new cold front is forecast to push off the U.S. \nsoutheastern coast early on Mon and move across the area through \nWed night while weakening. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas\nwill dominate much of the basin next week. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217519320269160455", "issued": "2026-10-10T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217519320269160455"}