{"msg": "158\nAXPZ20 KNHC 100859\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Sat Oct 10 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0830 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nMajor Hurricane Simon is centered near 17.2N 104.6W at 10/0900 UTC,\nmoving north at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 942\nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt.\nPeak seas are near 30 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong \nconvection is within 60 nm of center. Scattered moderate to \nisolated strong convection is elsewhere from 10N to 20N between \n100W and 110W. The hurricane is expected to continue to rapidly \nstrengthen over the next day or so, with a peak intensity of 135 \nkt forecast. The current NHC track forecast has the hurricane \nmoving inland over the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco. \nHowever, it is possible that the cyclone could remain just \noffshore as it moves generally northward. Simon is expected to \nproduce rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches over portions of \nsouthwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches \npossible across portions of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and \nNayarit through Sunday. This rainfall will produce life- \nthreatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep \nterrain. Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the \ncoast of southwestern and west- central Mexico during the next \nfew days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf\nand rip current conditions. Please consult products from your \nlocal weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the\nNational Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nTropical Storm Rachel is centered near 24.2N 121.4W at 10/0900\nUTC, moving northeast at 19 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with\ngusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are near 17 ft. Scattered moderate and\nisolated strong convection is within 120 nm NE semicircle. \nRachel is expected to approach and move ashore along the coast of\nnorthern Baja California or extreme Southern California at \ntropical storm strength tonight. Damaging wind gusts associated \nwith Rachel and its remnants are expected to spread over portions\nof northwestern Mexico and interior portions of the Southwest \nUnited States, especially in areas of higher terrain, tonight and\nSunday. Rachel and its moisture will spread over portions of the\nSouthwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula \nthrough this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of \nrainfall and for the potential for significant flash and urban \nflooding. Swells partly generated by Rachel will continue to \nbuild along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja \nCalifornia. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening \nsurf and rip current conditions, as well as moderate to isolated \nmajor coastal flooding, through early next week. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office. \nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 13N93W, then resumes \nnear 14N126W to beyond 09N140W. In addition to the convection \nassociated with Rachel and Simon, scattered moderate and isolated\nstrong convection is noted from 01N to 10N between 97W and 114W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Rachel.\nOutside of the areas impacted by Simon, a weak pressure gradient\ndominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, \nsupporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Simon is near 17.2N 104.6W at 2 AM \nPDT, and is moving north at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 125\nkt with gusts to 150 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 942\nmb. Simon will move to 17.8N 104.7W this afternoon, 18.8N 104.9W\nSun morning, inland to 20.0N 105.1W Sun afternoon, inland to \n21.7N 105.3W Mon morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical \ndepression near 23.1N 105.6W Mon afternoon, and dissipate Tue \nmorning. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rachel is near 24.2N 121.4W at\n2 AM PDT, and is moving northeast at 19 kt. Maximum sustained \nwinds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central \npressure is 992 mb. Rachel will move to 26.6N 119.0W this \nafternoon, 31.0N 116.6W Sun morning, inland to 36.0N 114.1W Sun \nafternoon, and dissipate Mon morning. Expected increasing winds \nand building seas over the northern Gulf of California tonight \ninto Sun as Rachel approaches Baja California Norte. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLight to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are noted N \nof 02N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas in \nSW swell prevail S of 02N. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate\nor lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast \nwaters through the middle of next week. An area of low pressure \nis forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next \nweek. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for \ngradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is \nlikely to form by the latter half of next week as the system \nmoves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. This system \nhas a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Rachel.\nOutside of the influence of Tropical Storm Rachel, moderate to \nfresh winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail N of 18N and W \nof 120W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, are noted \nelsewhere.\nFor the forecast, as Rachel moves over the southwest United \nStates, a cold front is forecast to extend across the northern \nforecast waters on Sun. Fresh N to NE winds and rough seas, in \nlong period northerly swell, will follow the front forecast to \nreach from the northern Gulf of california to near 20N140W on Mon\nwhile dissipating. Large SW swell will continue to affect the \nwaters S of the Equator and west of 105W over the next couple of \ndays. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217502738113757191", "issued": "2026-10-10T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217502738113757191"}