{"id": "1217502371323215879", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-10T09:00:00Z", "msg": "920\nWTPZ45 KNHC 100857\nTCDEP5\n \nHurricane Simon Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026\n300 AM CST Sat Oct 10 2026\n \nThe very small inner-core of Simon remains very impressive as the\ncyclone has continued to strengthen. The proxy-visible imagery has\nstarted to show that the tiny eye of the hurricane is clearing\nout.  The most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was a T6.0/115 kt,\nwhile the objective raw T-number intensity estimates  from\nUW-CIMSS have ranged from 120 to 132 kt. Based on a blend of the\nobjective and subjective intensity estimates, the initial intensity\nhas been increased to 125 kt for this advisory.  The wind radii has\nbeen adjusted based on a recent ASCAT pass.\n \nThe hurricane is expected to continue to rapidly strengthen over\nthe next day or so, with a peak intensity of 135 kt forecast. Given\nthe small size of the inner core, there is a higher than normal\ndegree of uncertainty with the peak intensity. Therefore, it is\npossible that Simon could become stronger than what is forecast.\nOnly a few changes were made for the current NHC forecast compared\nto the previous forecast.\n \nSimon's initial motion is estimated at 360/4 kt, northward.\nThe hurricane is being steered by the southerly mid-level flow\nproduced by high pressure over southern Mexico and a longwave\nmid-tropospheric trough to the west stretching south-southwestward\nfrom the southwest United States. There is still some uncertainty\nabout the track for Simon, as most of the skilled model guidance\nincluding HCCA and GDMI forecast aids have been experiencing to the\nleft of the track bias. The current NHC track forecast has the\nhurricane move inland over the Mexican states of Colima and\nJalisco; however, it is possible that the cyclone could remain just\noffshore as it moves generally northward. Should Simon move inland,\nthen it should dissipate quickly due to the mountainous terrain.\nHowever, if Simon were to stay offshore, then it would maintain\nhurricane intensity for a longer period of time. The current track\nforecast is similar to the previous one, with only a few small\nadjustments being made.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge impacts are\nlikely along a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a\nHurricane warning is in effect from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita.\nPreparations to protect life and property should be completed\ntoday.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of\nsouthwestern Mexico through this weekend. This rainfall will produce\nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of\nsteep terrain.\n \n3. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central\ncoast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to\ncause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please\nconsult products from your local weather office.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  10/0900Z 17.2N 104.6W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 12H  10/1800Z 17.8N 104.7W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 24H  11/0600Z 18.8N 104.9W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 36H  11/1800Z 20.0N 105.1W  120 KT 140 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  12/0600Z 21.7N 105.3W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\n 60H  12/1800Z 23.1N 105.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 72H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}