{"id": "1217501604650582023", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-10T09:00:00Z", "msg": "847\nWTPZ43 KNHC 100853\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number  53\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n200 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026\n \nSatellite imagery indicates that Rachel's convective organization\nhas changed little over the past several hours, with the deepest\nconvection remaining confined to the northern and northeastern\nportions of the circulation due to increasing southwesterly vertical\nwind shear. A 0505 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass revealed peak\nwinds of around 46 kt and an expanding wind field, which helped\nrefine the initial wind radii. Based on these data, the initial\nintensity is set at 50 kt.\n \nThe initial motion is northeastward, or 050/19 kt. A turn toward the\nnorth-northeast, accompanied by additional acceleration to around 25\nkt, is expected during the next 24 h as Rachel interacts with a\ndeepening mid- to upper-level trough over the western United States.\nThis motion should bring Rachel ashore just south of the \nU.S./Mexico border tonight, followed by a rapid north-northeastward \nmotion into the southwestern United States. Track guidance has \nshifted slightly to the right compared to 24 hours ago, but has \nchanged little since the previous cycle. The latest NHC track \nforecast is essentially unchanged from the previous prediction and \nlies close to the HCCA and GDMI aids.\n \nSome additional strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24 h\nas Rachel accelerates northeastward and interacts with the deepening\nupper-level trough. The NHC intensity forecast shows Rachel \nstrengthening to 55 kt before moving inland tonight. Rachel's wind \nfield has also begun to expand, and additional expansion is \npossible as the cyclone accelerates northeastward and\ninteracts with the upper-level trough. This could result in\ntropical-storm-force winds extending farther from the center as\nRachel begins to lose its tropical characteristics. Rachel is\nexpected to weaken rapidly after landfall as it encounters the\nmountainous terrain of northern Baja California and the southwestern\nUnited States. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical by 36\nh and dissipate by 48 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast is\nsimilar to the previous prediction and lies near the middle to upper\nend of the guidance envelope.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Rachel is expected to approach and move ashore along the coast of\nnorthern Baja California or extreme Southern California at tropical\nstorm strength tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in\nportions of northern Baja California, Mexico, where Tropical Storm\nWarnings are in effect. Tropical storm conditions are also possible\nin extreme Southern California, eastern Baja California, and\nportions of northwestern Mexico where Tropical Storm Watches are in\neffect.\n \n2. Damaging wind gusts associated with Rachel and its remnants are\nexpected to spread over portions of northwestern Mexico and interior\nportions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of\nhigher terrain, tonight and Sunday.\n \n3. Rachel and its moisture will spread over portions of the\nSouthwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula\nthrough this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of\nrainfall and for the potential for significant flash and urban\nflooding.\n \n4. Waves generated by Rachel, combined with an incoming long-period\nsoutherly swell, will produce life-threatening surf and rip current\nconditions along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja\nCalifornia. Major coastal flooding has already been occurring in\nsome areas, with observed water levels running as much as 1.5 feet\nabove predictions. Coastal flooding and erosion are expected to\nworsen tonight into Sunday morning as the highest waves associated\nwith Rachel coincide with high tides and already elevated water\nlevels. Hazardous coastal conditions are expected to continue into\nearly next week. Please consult products from your local weather\noffice.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  10/0900Z 24.2N 121.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  10/1800Z 26.6N 119.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  11/0600Z 31.0N 116.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  11/1800Z 36.0N 114.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 48H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}