{"msg": "889\nAXNT20 KNHC 100458\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Sat Oct 10 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0430 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Isaias is centered near 30.8N 86.5W at 10/0300 UTC or\n40 nm ENE of Pensacola Florida, moving N at 17 kt. Estimated\nminimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed\nis 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate to strong\nconvection is N of 26N and E of 86W. Seas up to 30 ft are expected\nnear the coast of the Florida Panhandle with the strongest winds.\nOn the forecast track, Isaias is expected to move across Alabama \nand into the Tennessee Valley Saturday and Sunday while weakening.\nSwells from Isaias are affecting much of the Gulf coasts of the \nUnited States, Mexico, and western Cuba. These swells are likely \nto cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please\nconsult products from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest \nIsaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 30W, south of 19N, moving westward at 5 \nto 10 kt. Scattered showers prevail along the wave axis. \nA western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, south of 20N, \nmoving westward at 10 kt. This wave continues to interact with an \nupper-level low over the NW Caribbean, with scattered moderate\nconvection noted to the east of the wave axis. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues \nsouthwestward to 12N30W to 09N45W. The ITCZ continues from that\npoint to 09N61W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 300\nnm on either side of the boundaries.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nPlease read the Special Features section above for more information\non Hurricane Isaias.\nSeas of 8 ft or greater generated by Isaias dominate most of the  \nGulf, reaching as far south as 23N based on an altimeter pass. \nFresh to strong cyclonic winds spiral into Isaias from the Yucatan\nChannel northward between the western Florida coastal waters and \nthe central Louisiana coastal waters near 93W. Elsewhere, a \ndissipating stationary front extends across N Florida. Moderate to\nfresh cyclonic N to NW winds prevail across the western Gulf, \nwhere seas are 4 to 8 ft in NE to E swell from Isaias. Scattered \nshowers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across the \ncentral Bay of Campeche.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Isaias will weaken to a tropical \nstorm near 32.7N 86.7W Sat morning, and weaken to a tropical \ndepression near 34.7N 86.7W Sat evening, to 36.9N 84.4W Sun \nmorning, to 39.0N 80.5W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning. \nSwells generated by Isaias will continue to spread across most of \nthe basin through Sat night. In the wake of Isaias, weak high \npressure will develop over the north-central Gulf by Sun evening \nresulting in moderate or weaker easterly winds across much of the \nbasin through at least late next week.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active\ntropical wave in the western Caribbean.\nA weak pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh trades \nover the eastern and central Caribbean. Moderate seas are with \nthese winds. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas \nare observed west of 84W through the Yucatan Channel, blowing into\nthe general circulation of Hurricane Isaias. Light to gentle \nwinds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are prevalent over the remainder of \nthe NW Caribbean as well as over the SW part of the basin.  \nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and \ncentral Caribbean and moderate seas are expected to continue \nthrough the next few days. Winds will pulse to strong speeds and \nseas will reach 8 ft tonight through Sun night in the south- \ncentral Caribbean and Gulf of Venezuela. Meanwhile, a tropical \nwave near 82W, in combination with an upper-level low, is \nproducing numerous showers and thunderstorms N of 14N between 75W \nand 82W. Unsettled weather conditions will remain associated with \nthis wave as it moves across the rest of the western Caribbean \nthrough the weekend. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA cold front extends from a 1016 mb low pressure located N of \narea near 34N53W to 27N64W, then becomes stationary to 30N81W.  \nFresh to strong NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found north of \nthe front off NE Florida and Georgia. South of the front, a weak \npressure gradient prevails west of 50W, supporting moderate or \nweaker winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft with the exception of moderate \nto fresh SE winds N of Hispaniola to about 23N between 68W and \n73W. \nAn upper-level low is spinning Ne of the Leeward Islands producing\nscattered showers and thunderstorms. A surface trough is analyzed\nfrom 29N46W to 21N50W and continues to produce scattered showers \nwith embedded thunderstorms. The remainder of the Atlantic \nforecast region is under the influence of a 1032 mb high pressure\nlocated just NE of the Azores. The pressure gradient between its \nassociated ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the \nmonsoon trough supports moderate to fresh winds NE to E winds N of\nthe monsoon trough and E of 40W to the coast of W Africa. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will lift back\nN as a warm front tonight into Sat. Fresh easterly winds off NE \nFlorida will veer to the SE at moderate to fresh speeds early on \nSat before weakening to gentle to moderate speeds by Sun. Fresh to\nlocally strong easterly winds are expected at night off \nHispaniola and into the Windward Passage tonight through Sun \nnight. Otherwise, as high pressure moves across the western \nAtlantic, a tightening pressure gradient will support northeast to\neast winds of fresh to strong speeds and rough seas behind a cold\nfront over the eastern waters, mainly N of 25N, Sun into Mon. \nLooking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to push off the U.S. \nsoutheastern coast early on Mon and move across the waters N of \n29N through Wed night while weakening. Light to gentle winds and \nmoderate seas will dominate much of the basin next week.  \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217455537352572935", "issued": "2026-10-10T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217455537352572935"}