{"msg": "637\nAXPZ20 KNHC 100256\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Sat Oct 10 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0230 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nMajor Hurricane Simon is centered near 16.8N 104.6W at 10/0300 \nUTC, moving north at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is \n952 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 \nkt. Peak seas are near 25 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered \nstrong convection is within 60 nm of center. Scattered moderate \nto isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 12N to 20N \nbetween 100W and 110W. Simon is expected to produce rainfall \ntotals of 10 to 20 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, \nwith isolated maximum totals of 30 inches possible across \nportions of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit through \nSunday. This rainfall will produce life- threatening flooding and\nmudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells \ngenerated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of \nsouthwestern and west- central Mexico during the next few days. \nThese swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip \ncurrent conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the\nNational Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nTropical Storm Rachel is centered near 23.8N 123.3W at 10/0300\nUTC, moving northeast at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with\ngusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 15 ft. Scattered moderate and\nisolated strong convection is within 120 nm NE semicircle. \nRachel is expected to approach the coast of the northern Baja \nCalifornia Peninsula and extreme Southern California at tropical \nstorm strength Saturday night. Damaging wind gusts associated \nwith Rachel and its remnants are expected to spread over portions\nof northwestern Mexico and interior portions of the Southwest \nUnited States, especially in areas of higher terrain, Saturday \nnight and Sunday. Rachel and its moisture will spread over \nportions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja \nCalifornia peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to \nincreasing coverage of rainfall and for the potential for \nsignificant flash and urban flooding. Swells partly generated by\nRachel will continue to build along the coast of Southern \nCalifornia and northern Baja California. These swells are likely \nto cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, as \nwell as moderate to isolated major coastal flooding, through \nearly next week. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice. \nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 12N95W, then resumes \nnear 15N126W to beyond 11N140W. In addition to the convection \nassociated with Rachel and Simon, scattered moderate and isolated \nstrong convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 86W and 112W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Rachel.\nOutside of the areas impacted by Simon, a weak pressure gradient\ndominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, \nsupporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Simon is near 16.8N 104.6W at 8 PM \nPDT, and is moving north at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105\nkt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 952\nmb. Simon will move to 17.4N 104.7W Sat morning, 18.2N 104.9W \nSat evening, 19.6N 105.0W Sun morning, inland to 21.0N 105.1W Sun\nevening, weaken to a remnant low near 22.4N 105.4W Mon morning, \nand dissipate Mon evening. Meanwhile Tropical Storm Rachel is \nnear 23.8N 123.3W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving northeast at 8 kt. \nMaximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the \nminimum central pressure is 995 mb. Rachel will move to 25.3N \n121.0W Sat morning, 28.9N 118.1W Sat evening, inland to 33.9N \n116.0W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun evening. Expected \nincreasing winds and building seas over the northern Gulf of \nCalifornia Sat night into Sun as Rachel approaches Baja \nCalifornia Norte. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLight to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are noted N \nof 02N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas in \nSW swell prevail S of 02N. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate\nor lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast \nwaters through the middle of next week. An area of low pressure \nis forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next \nweek. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for \ngradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is \nlikely to form by the latter half of next week as the system \nmoves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. This system \nhas a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Rachel.\nOutside of the influence of Tropical Storm Rachel, moderate to \nfresh winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail N of 18N and W \nof 120W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, are noted \nelsewhere.\nFor the forecast, as Rachel moves over the southwest United \nStates, a cold front is forecast to extend across the northern \nforecast waters on Sun. Fresh N to NE winds and rough seas, in \nlong period NW, swell will follow the front forecast to reach \nfrom the northern Gulf of california to near 20N140W on Mon while\ndissipating. Large SW swell will continue to affect the waters S\nof the Equator and west of 105W over the next couple of days. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217431397894979591", "issued": "2026-10-10T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217431397894979591"}