{"id": "1217430205274095623", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-10T03:00:00Z", "msg": "556\nWTPZ43 KNHC 100250\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number  52\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n800 PM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026\n \nRachel has begun accelerating toward the northeast this evening. \nAfter a day or two of relatively unimpressive convection, shower and \nthunderstorm activity has increased near and east of the center, \nwith cold cloud top temperatures below -65 C. However, dry mid-level \nair and moderate southwesterly wind shear continue to inhibit the \ndevelopment of organized deep convection around the center. Recent \nobjective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 33-42 \nkt. The intensity is maintained at 40 kt for this advisory.\n\nThe tropical storm is moving northeastward, or 50/08 kt. Rachel is \npositioned to the southeast of a strengthening closed mid-level low \nmoving southeastward off the coast of California. A rapid \nacceleration toward the northeast then north-northeast is expected \nover the next 24-36 h as the low rounds the base of the trough. This \nmotion should bring Rachel inland over northern Baja California late \nSaturday or early Sunday. Interaction with the low will subject \nRachel to considerable wind shear, likely causing the low- and \nmid-level centers to decouple. The low-level center is likely to \ndisintegrate as it encounters the Peninsular Ranges of northern \nBaja, while the mid-level center continues northeastward into the \nsouthwestern U.S. Track guidance remains similar to the previous \ncycle, with the hurricane regional models, the GFS, and the ECMWF on \nthe left side of the envelope, and the GDMI and HCCA on the right. \nHowever, the spread is beginning to narrow, with guidance \nincreasingly converging on landfall location in northern Baja. The \nlatest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, \nand lies near the middle of the guidance. \n \nA modest increase in intensity is expected over the next 24 h as \nRachel interacts with the closed low, which will likely provide \nfavorable upper-level dynamics and an increase in mid-level \nmoisture. In addition, anomalously warm waters prevail offshore of \nBaja California. Rachel is forecast to strengthen into a strong \ntropical storm up through landfall, despite a significant increase \nin wind shear. After landfall, Rachel is expected to weaken rapidly \nas it moves inland and encounters the mountainous terrain, while the \nmid-level low continues into the southwestern U.S. Strong, gusty \ndownslope winds may develop in the lee of the mountain ranges and \nextend into the deserts. However, Rachel is forecast to lose its \ntropical characteristics shortly after landfall. The latest NHC \nforecast intensity is near the middle of the guidance envelope. \n\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of the northern Baja\nCalifornia Peninsula and extreme Southern California at tropical\nstorm strength Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are\nexpected over portions of northern Baja California, Mexico where\nTropical Storm Warnings are in effect. Tropical storm conditions are\npossible in extreme Southern California, eastern Baja California \nand portions of northwest Mexico where a Tropical Storm Watch is in \neffect.\n \n2. Damaging wind gusts associated with Rachel and its remnants are\nexpected to spread over portions of northwestern Mexico and interior\nportions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of\nhigher terrain, Saturday night and Sunday.\n \n3. Rachel and its moisture will spread over portions of the\nSouthwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula\nthrough this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of\nrainfall and for the potential for significant flash and urban\nflooding.\n \n4. Swells partly generated by Rachel will continue to build along\nthe coast of Southern California and northern Baja California.\nThese swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip\ncurrent conditions, as well as moderate to isolated major coastal\nflooding, through early next week.  Please consult products from\nyour local weather office.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  10/0300Z 23.8N 123.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  10/1200Z 25.3N 121.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  11/0000Z 28.9N 118.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  11/1200Z 33.9N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 48H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}