{"id": "1217427642312261639", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-10T03:00:00Z", "msg": "190\nWTPZ45 KNHC 100237\nTCDEP5\n \nHurricane Simon Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026\n900 PM CST Fri Oct 09 2026\n \nSmall, compact Simon is rapidly intensifying this evening.  A\ndreaded pinhole eye has formed and is now visible in the\ninfrared BD-curve enhancement.  Visible imagery shows that the tiny\neye is cloud-filled.  Based on the impressive satellite\npresentation, the initial intensity is increased to 105 kt for this\nadvisory.  Simon's wind radii were adjusted based on an OSCAT-3\noverpass.\n \nFurther rapid strengthening is expected over the next 24 hours, with\nthe forecast showing a peak intensity of 125 kt.  Because of\nSimon's small inner core size, peak intensities are virtually\nimpossible to predict, and with just a slight warming of the\ntiny eye, Simon could quickly become stronger than reflected in the\nintensity forecast.  No changes worth noting were made to the NHC\nintensity forecast, which continues to be above the guidance suite.\n \nSimon's initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/6 kt.\nThe cyclone is moving within southerly mid-level steering flow\nproduced by high pressure over southern Mexico and a longwave\nmid-tropospheric trough to the west stretching south-southwestward\nfrom the southwest U.S.  It's still somewhat uncertain if Simon\nwill move inland over the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco or\nremain offshore.  The model fields of the skilled HiRes global\nmodels (GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CMC) show the cyclone moving inland\nand rapidly weakening with dissipation over the rugged mountainous\nterrain of the aforementioned states of Mexico in 60 hrs.  Of\ncourse, if Simon's track remains just offshore, as a few of\nthe guidance indicates, it's likely that it will maintain hurricane\nstrength for a longer period of time.  As the previous\nadvisories indicated, the NHC forecast continues to favor the\nformer scenario (inland/weakening), sticking with the more skilled\nconsensus aids.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge impacts are\nlikely along a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a\nHurricane warning is in effect from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita.\nPreparations to protect life and property should be completed by\nlate today.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of\nsouthwestern Mexico through this weekend. This rainfall will produce\nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of\nsteep terrain.\n \n3. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central\ncoast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to\ncause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please\nconsult products from your local weather office.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  10/0300Z 16.8N 104.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  10/1200Z 17.4N 104.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 24H  11/0000Z 18.2N 104.9W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 36H  11/1200Z 19.6N 105.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  12/0000Z 21.0N 105.1W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\n 60H  12/1200Z 22.4N 105.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}