{"msg": "159\nAXNT20 KNHC 092314\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Sat Oct 10 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Isaias is centered near 29.2N 87.0W at 09/2100 UTC or\n80 nm S of Pensacola Florida, moving N at 15 kt. Estimated\nminimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed\nis 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are up to 37 ft. \nNumerous moderate to scattered strong convection is across the \neastern Gulf N of 28N between 85W and 88.5W. This convection is \naffecting the western Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. \nIsaias is moving toward the north, and this general motion is \nexpected to continue through Saturday. A north-northeastward to \nnortheastward motion is forecast on Sunday. On the forecast \ntrack, Isaias is expected to make landfall along the coast of the\nwestern Florida Panhandle this evening. The center is then \nexpected to move across Alabama and into the Tennessee Valley \nSaturday and Sunday. Isaias is a category 3 hurricane on the \nSaffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is\nexpected before Isaias makes landfall this evening. Weakening is\nexpected to begin tonight after landfall, and Isaias is forecast\nto become post-tropical on Saturday. From Friday through the \nweekend, Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8\ninches across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big \nBend, and southwest Georgia. Localized totals up to 15 inches are\npossible, particularly within banding across the Florida \nPanhandle and Big Bend. Swells from Isaias are affecting much of \nthe Gulf coasts of the United States, Mexico, and western Cuba. \nThese swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip \ncurrent conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest \nIsaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 28W, south of 19N, moving westward at 5\nto 10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong \nconvection is observed mainly on the east side of the wave axis\nfrom 05N to 16N and east of 29W to the coast of Africa.\nA western Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W/81W, south of \n20N, moving westward at 10 kt. This wave continues to interact \nwith an upper-level low over the NW Caribbean, and is producing \nscattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 13N to 21N\nbetween 75W and 83W. Part of this convective activity is affecting\nJamaica and the Cayman Islands. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of\nMauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 12N30W to \n10N42W. ITCZ extends from 10N42W to near Trinidad and Tobago in\nthe Windward Islands. In addition to the convection associated\nwith the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is evident\nfrom 09N to 14N between 34W and 50W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nPlease read the Special Features section above for more information\non Major Hurricane Isaias centered over the northeast Gulf of \nAmerica. Seas of 8 ft or greater generated by Isaias dominate\nmost of the easter Gulf, reaching as far south as 23N based on an\naltimeter pass. Fresh to strong cyclonic winds spiral into Isaias\nfrom the Yucatan Channel northward between the western Florida \ncoastal waters and the central Louisiana coastal waters near 92W.\nElsewhere, a dissipating stationary front extends across N Florida.\nModerate to fresh cyclonic N to NW winds prevail across the western\nGulf, where seas are 4 to 8 ft in NE to E swell from Isaias. \nScattered showers nd isolated thunderstorms are occurring across\nthe central Bay of Campeche.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Isaias will move inland to near \n31.2N 86.8W late tonight, weaken to a tropical storm well north \nof the area Sat afternoon, and dissipate Mon afternoon. Swells \ngenerated by Isaias will continue to spread across most of the \nbasin through Sat night. In the wake of Isaias, weak high pressure\nwill develop over the north-central Gulf by Sun evening resulting\nin moderate or weaker easterly winds south of about 26N into the\nmiddle of next week.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active\ntropical wave in the western Caribbean.\nWeak 1019 mb high pressure has shifted southward into the western\nAtlantic near 27N67W, to the south of a frontal boundary located\nnear 30N. The associated pressure gradient is sustaining moderate\nto fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across the central\nCaribbean mainly N of 12N to the coast of Hispaniola. Moderate to\nlocally fresh trades and moderate seas are noted over the eastern\nCaribbean. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas \nare observed west of 84W through the Yucatan Channel, blowing \ninto the general circulation of Hurricane Isaias. Light to gentle\nwinds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are prevalent over the remainder of \nthe NW Caribbean as well as over the SW part of the basin. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient is supporting moderate\nto fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean. Moderate\nseas are with these winds. These conditions are expected to \ncontinue through the next few days. Winds will pulse to strong \nspeeds and seas will reach 8 ft tonight through Sun night in the \nsouth-central Caribbean and Gulf of Venezuela. Meanwhile, a \ntropical wave near 81W, in combination with an upper-level low, \nis producing numerous showers and thunderstorms N of 14N between \n76W and 80W. Unsettled weather conditions will remain associated \nwith this wave as it moves across the rest of the western \nCaribbean through the weekend. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA cold front extends from a 1013 mb low pressure located N of\narea near 33N55W to 29N63W then stationary to 30N70W and to NE \nFlorida. A weak 1019 mb high is south of this front near 27N67W.\nFresh to strong NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found north \nof the front off NE Florida and Georgia. South of the front, a \nweak pressure gradient prevails west of 50W, supporting moderate \nor weaker winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft with the exception of\nmoderate to fresh SE winds N of Hispaniola to about 23N between\n68W and 73W. \nAn upper-level low is spinning Ne of the Leeward Islands producing\nscattered showers and thunderstorms. A surface trough is analyzed\nfrom 30N49W to 21N53W and continues to produce scattered showers\nwith embedded thunderstorms. The remainder of the Atlantic \nforecast region is under the influence of a 1031 mb high pressure\nlocated just NE of the Azores. The pressure gradient between its\nassociated ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the\nmonsoon trough supports moderate to fresh winds NE to E winds N \nof the monsoon trough and E of 40W to the coast of W Africa. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the stationary portion of the \nfront will lift back N as a warm front tonight into Sat. Fresh to\nstrong east winds and rough seas are expected off NE Florida \nthrough Sat night. These winds will veer to the SE at moderate to\nfresh speeds early on Sat before weakening to gentle to moderate\nspeeds by Sun. Otherwise, as high pressure moves across the \nwestern Atlantic, a tightening pressure gradient will support \nnortheast to east winds of fresh to locally strong speeds and \nrough seas behind a cold front over the eastern waters, mainly N \nof 26N, Sun into Mon. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast\nto push off the U.S. southeastern coast early on Mon and move \nacross the waters N of 29N through Wed night while weakening. \nLight to gentle winds and moderate seas will dominate much of the\nbasin next week. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217387796126105607", "issued": "2026-10-09T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217387796126105607"}