{"msg": "329\nAXPZ20 KNHC 092206\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Fri Oct 9 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Simon is centered near 16.2N 104.7W at 09/2100 UTC,\nmoving northwest at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n966 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110\nkt. Peak seas are near 25 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered \nstrong convection is within 60 nm of center, except 90 nm SE\nquadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is\nelsewhere from 11N to 19N between 100W and 109W. Simon is moving \ntoward the northwest. A gradual turn toward the north with a \nslight increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. \nSimon is then forecast to move generally northward, with the \ncenter passing very near or over the west-central coast of \nMexico late Saturday or Sunday. Simon continues to strengthen. \nAdditional rapid strengthening is expected during the next day \nor so. Simon is forecast to become a major hurricane this evening\nand strengthen further on Saturday. Simon is expected to produce \nrainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches over portions of southwestern\nMexico, with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches possible \nacross portions of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit through\nSunday. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and\nmudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated \nby Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and \nwest-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are \nlikely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.\nPlease consult products from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the\nNational Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nTropical Storm Rachel is centered near 23.3N 124.0W at 09/2100\nUTC, moving northeast at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure\nis 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to \n50 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Scattered moderate convection is\nwithin 120 nm NE quadrant of center. Rachel is moving toward the\nnortheast. A general northeast to north-northeast motion, with a\nsignificant increase in forward speed, is expected over the next\ncouple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is \nexpected to approach the northern Baja California Peninsula or \nSouthern California late Saturday or early Sunday. Some strengthening \nis possible the next day or so, with rapid weakening forecast \nafter the storm moves inland over the southwestern United States \non Sunday. Rachel will bring 1 to 3 inches of rain to portions of\nBaja California this weekend. Swells partly generated by Rachel will \nbuild along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja \nCalifornia through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause \nlife-threatening surf and rip current conditions, as well as \nmoderate to isolated major coastal flooding, through early next \nweek.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 09N90W to 12N97W, then\nresumes near 14N124W to beyond 08N140W. In addition to the \nconvection associated with Rachel and Simon, scattered to\nnumerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 03.5N to \n08N between 98W and 110W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is seen from 02N to 10N between 80W and 98W. Scattered\nmoderate convection is from 00N to 05N W of 110W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Rachel.\nOutside of the areas impacted by Simon, a weak pressure gradient\ndominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, \nsupporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Simon will move to 16.6N 104.9W Sat \nmorning, 17.5N 105.0W Sat afternoon, 18.6N 105.1W Sun morning, \ninland to 20.0N 105.3W Sun afternoon, 21.4N 105.5W Mon morning, \nand move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 22.8N 105.8W \nMon afternoon. Simon will weaken to a tropical depression while \nmoving inland near 24.6N 106.4W Tue afternoon. Meanwhile, Tropical\nStorm Rachel will move to 24.2N 122.4W Sat morning, 26.7N 119.4W Sat\nafternoon, 30.9N 117.2W Sun morning, inland to 36.4N 115.0W Sun\nafternoon, and dissipate Mon morning. Expected increasing winds \nand building seas over the northern Gulf of California Sat night \ninto Sun as Rachel approaches Baja California Norte.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLight to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are noted N \nof 04N, with the exception of fresh to strong winds N of the \nmonsoon trough mainly from 10N to 13N between 88W and 91W as\nnoted on scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate southerly winds \nand moderate seas in SW swell prevail S of 04N. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate\nor lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast \nwaters through the middle of next week. An area of low pressure \nis forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next \nweek. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for \ngradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is \nlikely to form by late next week as the system moves generally \nwest-northwestward at around 10 kt. This system has now a high \nchance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Rachel.\nOutside of the influence of Tropical Storm Rachel, moderate to \nfresh winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail N of 12N and W \nof 130W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas are noted \nelsewhere.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Rachel will move to 24.2N 122.4W\nSat morning, 26.7N 119.4W Sat afternoon, 30.9N 117.2W Sun morning,\ninland to 36.4N 115.0W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning.\nAs Rachel moves over the southwest of the United States, a cold \nfront is forecast to extend across the northern forecast waters \non Sun. Fresh N to NE winds and rough seas, in long period NW, \nswell will follow the front forecast to reach from the northern \nGulf of california to near 20N140W on Mon while dissipating. Large\nSW swell will continue to affect the waters S of the Equator and\nwest of 105W over the next couple of days. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217374530223669255", "issued": "2026-10-09T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217374530223669255"}