{"id": "1217358616490344455", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-09T21:00:00Z", "msg": "916\nWTPZ45 KNHC 092046\nTCDEP5\n \nHurricane Simon Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026\n300 PM CST Fri Oct 09 2026\n \nAn intermittent warm spot in the CDO of Simon has been present since \nthis morning, co-located with a small pinhole-like eye noted in \nvisible imagery. The initial intensity of 90 kt is based primarily \non the latest TAFB Dvorak fix, though this is very uncertain due to \nthe very small size of Simon and intensity estimates range from \naround 65 kt (DMINT) to 97 KT (RCM-1 SAR). The SAR data this morning \nindicated the system has an RMW near 5 n mi, highlighting how small \nit is.\n\nSimon has continued to strengthen today, although at a slightly \nslower rate since this morning. Further rapid intensification is \nstill anticipated but the exact timing of when the rate might pick \nup again is highly uncertain. Small hurricanes like Simon are \nparticularly susceptible to large and rapid fluctuations in \nintensity. In the short term, no changes of note were made to the \nNHC intensity forecast, which remains at the high end of the \nguidance envelope. \n\nThe main challenge with this forecast is how sensitive it is to the \nexact track Simon takes over the next 2 days and whether or not it \nmoves inland over the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco. A track \nslightly east of the NHC official forecast track will cause Simon to \nquickly dissipate and minimize the threat of wind impacts farther \nnorth in Mexico. However, a track just to the west would likely \nallow Simon to move much farther north as a hurricane. At this time, \nthe difference between these track scenarios is less than the \naverage error of NHC forecasts. Most of the deterministic global \nmodels shifted slightly east this cycle, but ensemble guidance \nindicates both scenarios are still plausible. The NHC track and \nintensity forecast therefore is largely unchanged and continues to \nshow Simon tracking farther north than it might realistically make \nit to emphasize that risk. \n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge impacts are\nlikely along a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a\nHurricane warning is in effect from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita.\nPreparations to protect life and property should be completed by\nlate today.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of \nsouthwestern Mexico through this weekend. This rainfall will produce \nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of \nsteep terrain.\n \n3. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central\ncoast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to\ncause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please\nconsult products from your local weather office.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  09/2100Z 16.2N 104.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  10/0600Z 16.6N 104.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  10/1800Z 17.5N 105.0W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 36H  11/0600Z 18.6N 105.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  11/1800Z 20.0N 105.3W   95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND\n 60H  12/0600Z 21.4N 105.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...OVER WATER\n 72H  12/1800Z 22.8N 105.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  13/1800Z 24.6N 106.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}