{"id": "1217325190396051463", "title": "Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory", "adv_date": "2026-10-09T18:00:00Z", "msg": "978\nWTNT34 KNHC 091756\nTCPAT4\n \nBULLETIN\nHurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 12A\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092026\n100 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026\n \n...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF \nCOAST...\n...PREPARATIONS AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND \nDEVASTATING WINDS SHOULD BE COMPLETED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...\n \n \nSUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION\n----------------------------------------------\nLOCATION...28.4N 87.2W\nABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA\nABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H\nPRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H\nMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES\n \n \nWATCHES AND WARNINGS\n--------------------\nCHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:\n \nNone.\n \nSUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:\n \nA Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...\n* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River\n \nA Hurricane Warning is in effect for...\n* Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL\n \nA Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...\n* Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS\n* East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL\n \nA Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...\n* Suwannee River to Yankeetown, FL\n \nA Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening\ninundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For\na depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather\nService Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at\nhurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons\nlocated within these areas should take all necessary actions to\nprotect life and property from rising water and the potential for\nother dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other\ninstructions from local officials.\n \nA Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected\nsomewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and\nproperty should be rushed to completion.\n \nA Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are\nexpected somewhere within the warning area.\n \nA Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-\nthreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the\ncoastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the\nNational Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,\navailable at hurricanes.gov.\n \nFor storm information specific to your area, including possible\ninland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your\nlocal National Weather Service forecast office.\n \n \nDISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK\n----------------------\nAt 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located\nnear latitude 28.4 North, longitude 87.2 West. Isaias is moving\ntoward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This motion is \nexpected to continue through this evening, followed by a northward \nmotion on Saturday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to \napproach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast this afternoon and make \nlandfall within the warning area this evening.\n \nData from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft \nindicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 \nkm/h) with higher gusts.  Isaias is a category 3 hurricane on the \nSaffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Fluctuations in intensity are \npossible through this afternoon, but Isaias is expected to be at or \nnear major hurricane strength when it makes landfall this evening. \nWeakening is expected beginning tonight after Isaias makes landfall, \nand the storm is likely to become post-tropical by late Saturday.\n \nHurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from\nthe center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205\nmiles (335 km). A wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) was recently \nreported at Dauphin Island, Alabama.\n \nThe estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).\n \n \nHAZARDS AFFECTING LAND\n----------------------\nKey messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone\nDiscussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.\n \nSTORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the\ntide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by\nrising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could\nreach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated\nareas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...\n \nAL/FL Border to Grayton Beach, FL...6-9 ft\nGrayton Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...4-7 ft\nIndian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...4-6 ft\nDauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border...4-6 ft\nSteinhatchee River, FL to Suwannee River, FL...3-5 ft\nMouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Dauphin Island, AL...3-5 ft\nLower Mobile Bay...3-5 ft\nSuwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft\nUpper Mobile Bay...2-4 ft\n \nThe deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of\nonshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and\ndangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative\ntiming of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over\nshort distances. For information specific to your area, please see\nproducts issued by your local National Weather Service forecast\noffice.\n \nFor a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,\nplease see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,\navailable at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.\n \nWIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning\nthis evening into early Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are \nnow beginning. Hurricane-force winds are expected to spread inland \nas far as 100 miles from the coast into southern Alabama. Tropical \nstorm conditions are beginning in the tropical storm warning areas.\n \nRAINFALL:  Through the weekend, Isaias is expected to produce\nrainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, the\nFlorida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia. Localized\ntotals up to 15 inches are possible, particularly within banding\nacross the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend.\n \nAcross much of the remainder of the Southeast, rainfall amounts of 2\nto 5 inches are expected.  Localized higher amounts up to 10 inches\nare possible, especially across the Southern Appalachians and\ncoastal Carolinas.\n \nFlash and urban flooding is possible across the region, with\nconsiderable impacts likely across much of southern Alabama and the\nFlorida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia. River flooding is also\nexpected, some of which could be significant.\n \nFor a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with\nIsaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall\nGraphic available at\nhurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk\ngraphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.\n \nTORNADOES: A tornado risk will begin this afternoon and continue\ntonight in coastal areas of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and\nsouthern Georgia. The tornado threat will continue Saturday across\nparts of eastern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, and the\nCarolinas.\n \nSURF: Swells from Isaias are affecting the western and northern\nportions of the Yucatan Peninsula and are spreading northward toward\nthe Gulf Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening\nsurf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your\nlocal weather office.\n \nA depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found\nat: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents\n \n \nNEXT ADVISORY\n-------------\nNext complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.\n \n"}