{"msg": "091\nAXNT20 KNHC 091717\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Fri Oct 9 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1600 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Isaias is centered near 27.7N 87.3W at 1500 UTC or 170 \nnm S of Pensacola, FL, moving NNE at 14 kt. Estimated minimum \ncentral pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt\nwith gusts to 130 kt, making Isaias a major hurricane. Numerous \nmoderate to scattered strong convection is across the eastern Gulf\nN of 26.5N between 85W and 88.5W, with the strongest storms \nwithin 90 nm of the center of Isaias. Seas near the center are up \nto 33 ft. A general northward motion is expected throughout the \nremainder of today, with landfall expected within the warning area\ntonight or early Saturday. Little change in strength is\nanticipatedbefore landfall, and Isaias will likely remain a \ndangerous hurricane until landfall. Swells from Isaias are \naffecting the coastlines of most of the eastern Gulf to SE \nLouisiana, and will increase along the Gulf coasts from SW Florida\nto Louisiana throughout the afternoon and evening. These swells \nare likely to cause large and powerful surf and life-threatening \nrip current conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest \nIsaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 19N,\nmoving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered to locally numerous \nmoderate isolated strong convection is observed from 05.5N to 16N\nand east of 29W to the coast of Africa.\nA western Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W-80W, south of 20N,\nmoving westward at 10 kt. This wave continues to interact with an\nupper-level low over the NW Caribbean, and is producing scattered\nmoderate isolated strong convection from 13.5N to 22N and between\n76.5W and 81.5W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of\nMauritania near 14.5N17W and continues southwestward to 09N24W to\n11.5N35W to 09N40W. ITCZ extends from 09N48W to 10N62W. Scattered\nmoderate convection is noted from 07.5N to 14N between 30W and\n40W, and from 090N to 11N between 50W and 62W. Scattered moderate\nto strong convection is noted from 11N to 14.5N between 44.5W and\n48W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nPlease read the Special Features section above for more information\non Major Hurricane Isaias centered over the northeast Gulf of \nAmerica. Tropical storm force winds have moved to near or along \nthe Gulf coast from Apalachicola, FL to SE Louisiana late this \nmorning, with seas now 8 to 15 ft and rising across those waters. \nA 30 to 60 nm wide rainband extends from the eastern periphery of \nIsaias near 29N84W south-southwestward through the Yucatan \nChannel. Fresh to strong cyclonic winds spiral into Isaias from\nthe Yucatan Channel northward between the western Florida coastal\nwaters and the central Louisiana coastal waters near 93W.\nElsewhere, a dissipating stationary front extends across N \nFlorida and into the NE Gulf along 29N. Moderate to fresh cyclonic\nN to W winds prevail across the W and SW Gulf, where seas are 4 \nto 8 ft in NE to E swell from Isaias. Scattered showers are across\nthe central Bay of Campeche.\nFor the forecast, Isaias will move to near 29.7N 86.8W this \nevening, then move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near \n32.1N 87.1W Sat morning with maximum sustained winds 55 kt, then  \nweaken to a tropical depression well inland by Sun morning. Swell\ngenerated by Isaias will spread northward across the basin \ncentral Gulf through Sat night. In the wake of Isaias, weak high \npressure will develop over the north- central Gulf by Sun evening \nresulting in moderate or weaker return flow over the western Gulf \nthrough midweek. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active\ntropical wave in the western Caribbean.\nWeak 1019 mb high pressure has shifted southward into the western\nAtlantic near 26N62W, to the south of a cold front now along \nabout 30N. The associated pressure gradient is sustaining moderate\nto fresh easterly winds and moderate seas to 6 ft across the \nbasin between the tropical wave along 79W-80W and 63W. Moderate \nto fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are noted west of 84W\nthrough the Yucatan Channel, blowing into the general circulation  \nof Hurricane Isaias. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft are\nprevalent elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient is expected to \ncontinue across the basin through the next few days. Winds will \npulse to strong speeds and seas will reach 8 ft tonight through \nSun night in the south- central Caribbean and Gulf of Venezuela. \nHurricane Isaias over the central Gulf of America is producing \nfresh southerly winds in the Yucatan Channel and these winds will \nlift northward later today. Meanwhile, a tropical wave near 80W, \nin combination with an upper- level low, is producing scattered \nshowers and thunderstorms N of 16N between 76W and 82W. Unsettled \nweather conditions will remain associated with this wave as it \nmoves across the western Caribbean through the weekend.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA cold front has drifted southward into the northern waters,\nextending from the central Atlantic through 31N60W to 29N64W, then\nmeanders westward along about 30N into NE Florida. A weak 1019 mb\nhigh has developed south of this front near 26N62W. Fresh to\nstrong NE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are found north of the front off\nNE Florida and GA. South of the front, a weak pressure gradient \nprevails west of 50W, supporting moderate or weaker winds and \nseas of 3-6 ft. \nAn upper-level trough continues across the central Atlantic,\nextending S-SW across the area waters between 45W and 55W, and\ncontinues to produce scattered showers to the E between 40W and\n52W. A surface trough along about 52W is drifting westward. A \nstrong 1034 mb high pressure system is just north of the Azores \nand the surface trough along 52W combine to support moderate to \nfresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft north of the monsoon \ntrough and east of 46W. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front along about 30N\nand W of 64W will lift N as a warm front tonight into Sat. Fresh \nto strong E winds and rough seas are expected today off NE Florida\nas Hurricane Isaias tracks northward across the Gulf of America. \nThese winds will veer to the SE at moderate to fresh speeds early \non Sat before weakening to gentle to moderate speeds by Sun. \nOtherwise, as high pressure moves across the western Atlantic, a \ntightening pressure gradient will support NE to E winds of fresh \nto locally strong speeds and rough seas behind a cold front over \nthe eastern waters, mainly N of 26N, Sun into Mon. Looking ahead, \na new cold front is forecast to push off the U.S. southeastern \ncoast early on Mon and move across the waters N of 29N through Tue\nnight while it weakens. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas \nwill dominate much of the basin early next week.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217317635510206471", "issued": "2026-10-09T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217317635510206471"}