{"msg": "932\nAXPZ20 KNHC 091553\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Fri Oct 9 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Simon is centered near 16.0N 104.7W at 09/1500 UTC,\nmoving northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105\nkt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. \nPeak seas are near 25 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong \nconvection is observed from 13N to 19N between 101W and 108W. \nScattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere \nfrom 11N to 20N between 100W and 110W. Simon is moving toward \nthe northwest. A slow turn toward the north is expected today \nand tonight. Simon is then forecast to move generally northward, \nwith the center passing very near or over the west- central coast\nof Mexico on Sunday. Continued rapid strengthening is expected during \nthe next day or so. Simon is forecast to become a major hurricane by \nthis evening and strengthen further on Saturday. Simon is expected \nto produce rainfall totals of 8 to 15 inches over portions of \nsouthwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum totals of 25 inches \npossible across portions of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and \nNayarit through Sunday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening\nflooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.\nSwells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of \nsouthwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. \nThese swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip \ncurrent conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the\nNational Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nTropical Storm Rachel is centered near 22.8N 124.6W at 09/1500\nUTC, moving northeast at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with\ngusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Scattered moderate \nconvection is within 75 nm E semicircle of center. Rachel is \nmoving toward the northeast. A general northeast to north- \nnortheast motion, with a significant increase in forward speed is\nexpected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, \nthe center of Rachel is expected to approach the northern Baja \nCalifornia Peninsula or southern California late Saturday or \nearly Sunday. Some strengthening is possible the next day or two, \nwith rapid weakening forecast after the storm moves inland over \nthe southwestern United States on Sunday. Rachel will bring 1 to \n3 inches of rain to portions of Baja California this weekend.\nSwells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast \nof Southern California and northern Baja California through the \nweekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and \nrip current conditions, as well as moderate to isolated major \ncoastal flooding, through early next week.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 10N86W to 13N94W, then\nresumes near 14N128W to beyond 08N140W. In addition to the \nconvection associated with Rachel and Simon, scattered moderate \nto isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 13N E of 90W\nto the coast of Colombia, and from 00N to 08N W of 90W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Simon.\nOutside of the areas impacted by Simon, a weak pressure gradient\ndominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, \nsupporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Simon will move to 16.5N 104.8W this \nevening, 17.2N 104.9W Sat morning, 18.2N 105.0W Sat evening, \n19.4N 105.2W Sun morning, inland to 20.7N 105.4W Sun evening, and\n21.9N 105.6W Mon morning. Simon will weaken to a tropical storm \nwhile moving inland near 23.6N 106.2W early Tue.  Meanwhile, \nTropical Storm Rachel will move to 23.4N 123.6W this evening, \n25.1N 121.0W Sat morning, 28.5N 118.1W Sat evening, inland to \n33.3N 116.0W Sun morning, inland to 38.1N 114.0W Sun evening, and\ndissipate Mon morning. Expected increasing winds and building seas\nover the northern Gulf of California Sat night into Sun as Rachel\napproaches Baja California Norte.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLight to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are noted N \nof 03N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas in\nSW swell prevail S of 03N. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate\nor lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast \nwaters through the middle of next week. An area of low pressure is \nforecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next \nweek. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for \nsome gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression \ncould form as the system moves generally west-northwestward at \naround 10 mph. This system has a medium chance of tropical \ncyclone formation through 7 days. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Rachel.\nOutside of the influence of Tropical Storm Rachel, moderate to \nfresh winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail N of 15N and W \nof 120W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas are noted \nelsewhere.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Rachel will move to 23.4N \n123.6W this evening, 25.1N 121.0W Sat morning, 28.5N 118.1W Sat \nevening, inland to 33.3N 116.0W Sun morning, inland to 38.1N \n114.0W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning. A tightening \npressure gradient between Rachel and a ridge over the NW forecast\narea will bring fresh to strong N winds and rough seas across \nthe waters N of 25N between 128W and 135W by tonight. These \nmarine conditions will persist on Sat. Large SW swell will\ncontinue to affect the waters S of the Equator and west of 105W \nover the next couple of days. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217301024075612167", "issued": "2026-10-09T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217301024075612167"}