{"id": "1217295001613729799", "title": "Hurricane Local Statement", "adv_date": "2026-10-09T15:22:00Z", "wmo": "HLSSGX", "msg": "201\nWTUS86 KSGX 091522\nHLSSGX\nCAZ043-050-058-062-092330-\n\nTropical Storm Rachel Local Statement Advisory Number 50\nNational Weather Service San Diego CA  EP182026\n822 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026\n\nThis product covers EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA\n\n**Tropical Storm Rachel Will Bring Coastal Flooding, Wind, and Rain \nto Portions of Southern California Sunday** \n\n\nNEW INFORMATION\n---------------\n\n* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:\n    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for San Diego County \n      Coastal Areas, San Diego County Deserts, San Diego County \n      Mountains, and San Diego County Valleys\n\n* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:\n    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for San Diego County \n      Coastal Areas, San Diego County Deserts, San Diego County \n      Mountains, and San Diego County Valleys\n\n* STORM INFORMATION:\n    - About 840 miles south-southwest of San Mateo Point CA or about \n      810 miles southwest of Mouth of Tijuana River CA\n    - 22.8N 124.6W\n    - Storm Intensity 50 mph\n    - Movement Northeast or 55 degrees at 5 mph\n\nSITUATION OVERVIEW\n------------------\n\nTropical Storm Rachel is moving towards Northern Baja. Rachel is \nexpected to make landfall somewhere near the US/Mexico Border. While \nthere remains some uncertainty in the track, the current trend in the\nguidance increases the likelihood that Tropical Storm level impacts \nmay reach San Diego County on Sunday. Tropical Storm Watch has been \nissued for San Diego County. The main concerns with Tropical Storm \nRachel are coastal flooding, wind, and periods of heavy rain. \n\nSouth swell from Tropical Storm Rachel will arrive on Sunday. The \ncombination of the swell along with wind waves and continued morning \nhigh tides near 7 feet will maintain a threat of coastal flooding and \nbeach erosion along beaches in San Diego County. Surf on Sunday is \ncurrently expected to be 5 to 7 feet with local sets to 9 feet, \ndecreasing to 3-6 feet for Monday and Tuesday. Confidence in impactful \ncoastal flooding is high. \n\nWidespread rain is expected on Sunday from Tropical Storm Rachel. \nThere is expected to be a sharp gradient in rainfall amounts with \nthe higher amounts on the southeastern side of the storm. There \nstill remains some uncertainty in the track, but a continued \nnorthern shift would increase potential for heavy rain across the \ncounty with a southern shift making it more localized. We have the \nhighest confidence that the heaviest rain will occur over San Diego \ncounty mountains and deserts. The most likely scenario, accounting \nfor around 50% of solutions, brings San Diego coast, valleys, and \ndeserts a soaking rain between 0.25-1\" Sunday with 1-2 inches in the \nmountains. Assuming the low tracks close enough to the mountains, \neasterly flow over the desert slopes could yield high rates (>0.5/hr) \nand totals (1-2 inches). The higher end case brings 1-2\" over the \ncoast, valleys, deserts and 2-4\" over the mountains, which could result\nin more numerous impacts.\n\nIncreased winds are expected with the onset and passage of TS \nRachel. Sustained winds of 39+ mph are expected on the southeast \nside of the storm. If the track continues to move further north, \nthat would put more of San Diego county in a position to see winds \nof that magnitude. Based on the current track, more southern parts \nof the county are most likely to see winds of this magnitude. \nRegardless, stronger than normal sustained winds and wind gusts can be\nexpected on Sunday. \n\nLocations north of San Diego County are expected to also see impacts\nfrom coastal flooding, the potential for heavy rain, and  elevated \nwinds. \n\nPOTENTIAL IMPACTS\n-----------------\n\n* WIND:\nPrepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across San\nDiego County. Potential impacts in this area include:\n    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored \n      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.\n    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or \n      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are \n      shallow rooted, especially in coastal and valley locations that \n      don't typically experience strong winds. Some fences and \n      roadway signs blown over.\n    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban \n      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on \n      bridges and other elevated roadways.\n    - Scattered power and communications outages.\n\nElsewhere across EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA, little to no impact \nis anticipated.\n\n* FLOODING RAIN:\nPrepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant\nimpacts across San Diego County. Potential impacts include:\n    - Heavy rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and \n      rescues, especially in and below recently burned areas.\n    - Rivers may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and \n      overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually \n      vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, arroyos, and ditches \n      overflow.\n    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. \n      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid \n      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage \n      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as \n      storm drains overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. \n      Some road closures.\n\nPrepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible \nlimited impacts across San Diego County.\n\n* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:\nHigh tides reaching 7 ft, combined with high surf and gusty onshore\nwinds will increase the threat for coastal flooding across area\nbeaches. Additionally surf of 6 to 9 ft will create dangerous swimming\nconditions. \n\nPRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS\n----------------------------------\n\n* EVACUATIONS:\nFollow the advice of local officials.\n\n* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:\nIf you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as \nnear the ocean, in a low-lying or poor drainage area, or in a valley, \nplan to move to safe shelter on higher ground.\n\nNow is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies kit\nand take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your home\nor business.\n\nAlways heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that \nare issued. \n\nClosely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news \noutlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes \nto the forecast.\n\n\n* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:\n- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov\n- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org\n- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org\n\nNEXT UPDATE\n-----------\n\nThe next local statement will be issued by the National Weather \nService in San Diego CA around 2 PM PDT, or sooner if conditions \nwarrant.\n\n"}