{"id": "1217289983750864903", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-09T15:00:00Z", "msg": "209\nWTPZ43 KNHC 091456\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number  50\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n800 AM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026\n \nSatellite images indicate that Rachel is struggling to maintain deep \nconvection, with only limited and shallow convection remaining near \nthe center of circulation. A scatterometer pass received shortly \nafter the previous advisory indicated peak winds of around 43 kt. \nSatellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 31 to 44 kt, \nwhile the TAFB subjective Dvorak estimate is T2.5/35 kt. Given the \nscatterometer data, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this \nadvisory.\n\nThe storm is moving northeastward at an estimated 055/4 kt. A \ndeepening mid-to upper-level trough moving into the eastern Pacific \ntoward the western United States is expected to steer Rachel \nnortheastward to north-northeastward with an increasing forward \nspeed throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the \nsystem is expected to move inland over northern Baja California late \nSaturday or early Sunday before continuing northeastward into the \nsouthwestern United States on Sunday. There has been a northward \nshift in the latest track guidance, with the global and hurricane \nregional models now bringing the center near the U.S./Mexico border \nor into extreme southern California. The latest NHC track forecast \nhas been nudged northward and lies between the global and regional \nhurricane models to the left, and the HCCA and GDMI slightly to the \nright. Given this track forecast, Tropical Storm Watches have been \nissued for portions of northern Baja California and southern \nCalifornia. There will be a sharp gradient in the wind field, with \nthe strongest winds anticipated to remain primarily in the eastern \nand southern semicircles of the circulation.\n\nRachel remains embedded within a very dry air mass, with mid-level \nrelative humidity values in the lower 30 percent range. Sea surface \ntemperatures of around 24-25C will also limit convective \norganization. However, interaction with the aforementioned deepening \ntrough is expected to increase mid-level moisture and improve \nupper-level divergence, allowing Rachel to produce intermittent \nbursts of deep convection and maintain tropical cyclone status. \nFurthermore, there are anomalously warm waters just offshore of \nnorthern Baja California for this time of year, running roughly 6-7C \nabove normal. There has been a notable upward trend in the intensity \nguidance from the global and regional models this cycle, and the NHC \nforecast has been adjusted accordingly. As the system approaches the \ncoast, increasing vertical wind shear is expected to displace the \nremaining convection downshear toward the northeastern portion of \nthe circulation. Rachel is forecast to remain a strong tropical \nstorm as it makes landfall. Once inland, rapid weakening is \nexpected, and the system is forecast to become post-tropical over \nthe southwestern United States. The latest NHC intensity forecast \nlies near the upper end of the guidance envelope, reflecting the \ncomplex interactions between Rachel and the approaching trough, as \nwell as the inherent uncertainty in how models handle these \nprocesses.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of the northern Baja \nCalifornia Peninsula and southern California at tropical storm \nstrength Saturday night, and a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect \nfrom San Jose de Las Palomas, Mexico northward into southern \nCalifornia to the San Diego/Orange County Line. \n\n2. Damaging wind gusts associated with Rachel and its remnants are \nexpected to spread over portions of northwestern Mexico and interior \nportions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of \nhigher terrain, Saturday night and Sunday.\n\n3. Rachel and the moisture associated with the system will spread \nover portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja \nCalifornia peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to \nincreasing coverage of rainfall and for the potential of flash and \nurban flooding.\n\n4. Swells partly generated by Rachel will continue to build along \nthe coast of Southern California and northern Baja California.  \nThese swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip \ncurrent conditions, as well as moderate to isolated major coastal \nflooding, through early next week.  Please consult products from \nyour local weather office.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  09/1500Z 22.8N 124.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  10/0000Z 23.4N 123.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  10/1200Z 25.1N 121.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  11/0000Z 28.5N 118.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  11/1200Z 33.3N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 60H  12/0000Z 38.1N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 72H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}