{"id": "1217289302713761799", "title": "Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory", "adv_date": "2026-10-09T15:00:00Z", "msg": "164\nWTNT34 KNHC 091453\nTCPAT4\n \nBULLETIN\nHurricane Isaias Advisory Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092026\n1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026\n \n...CENTER OF ISAIAS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE\nCOAST THIS EVENING...\n...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DEVASTATING WINDS LIKELY ALONG \nTHE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA COASTS...\n \n \nSUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION\n-----------------------------------------------\nLOCATION...27.7N 87.3W\nABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA\nABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H\nPRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H\nMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES\n \n \nWATCHES AND WARNINGS\n--------------------\nCHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:\n \nNone.\n \nSUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:\n \nA Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...\n* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River\n \nA Hurricane Warning is in effect for...\n* Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL\n \nA Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...\n* Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS\n* East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL\n \nA Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...\n* Suwannee River to Yankeetown, FL\n \nA Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening\ninundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For\na depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather\nService Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at\nhurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons\nlocated within these areas should take all necessary actions to\nprotect life and property from rising water and the potential for\nother dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other\ninstructions from local officials.\n \nA Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected\nsomewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and\nproperty should be rushed to completion.\n \nA Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are\nexpected somewhere within the warning area.\n \nA Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-\nthreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the\ncoastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the\nNational Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,\navailable at hurricanes.gov.\n \nFor storm information specific to your area, including possible\ninland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your\nlocal National Weather Service forecast office.\n \n \nDISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK\n----------------------\nAt 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was\nlocated near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 87.3 West. Isaias is\nmoving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This \nmotion is expected to continue through this evening, followed by a \nnorthward motion on Saturday. On the forecast track, Isaias is\nexpected to approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast this afternoon and\nmake landfall within the warning area this evening.\n \nMaximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher \ngusts. Isaias is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson \nHurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible through \nthis afternoon, but Isaias is expected to be at or near major \nhurricane strength when it makes landfall this evening. Weakening is \nexpected beginning tonight after Isaias makes landfall, and the \nstorm is likely to become post-tropical by late Saturday.\n \nHurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the\ncenter and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles\n(335 km).\n \nThe estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).\n \n \nHAZARDS AFFECTING LAND\n----------------------\nKey messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone\nDiscussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.\n \nSTORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the\ntide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by\nrising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could\nreach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated\nareas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...\n \nAL/FL Border to Grayton Beach, FL...6-9 ft\nGrayton Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...4-7 ft\nIndian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...4-6 ft\nDauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border...4-6 ft\nSteinhatchee River, FL to Suwannee River, FL...3-5 ft\nMouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Dauphin Island, AL...3-5 ft\nLower Mobile Bay...3-5 ft\nSuwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft\nUpper Mobile Bay...2-4 ft\n \nThe deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of\nonshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and\ndangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative\ntiming of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over\nshort distances. For information specific to your area, please see\nproducts issued by your local National Weather Service forecast\noffice.\n \nFor a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,\nplease see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,\navailable at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.\n \nWIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning\nthis evening into early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions\nbeginning during the next few hours. Hurricane force winds are\nexpected to spread inland as far as 100 miles from the\ncoast into southern Alabama. Tropical storm conditions are expected\nin the warning areas beginning in the next few hours.\n \nRAINFALL:  Through the weekend, Isaias is expected to produce \nrainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, the \nFlorida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia. Localized \ntotals up to 15 inches are possible, particularly within banding \nacross the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. \n\nAcross much of the remainder of the Southeast, rainfall amounts of 2 \nto 5 inches are expected.  Localized higher amounts up to 10 inches \nare possible, especially across the Southern Appalachians and \ncoastal Carolinas.  \n\nFlash and urban flooding is possible across the region, with \nconsiderable impacts likely across much of southern Alabama and the \nFlorida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia. River flooding is also \nexpected, some of which could be significant. \n\nFor a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with \nIsaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall \nGraphic available at\nhurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk \ngraphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.\n \nTORNADOES: A tornado risk will begin this afternoon and continue\ntonight in coastal areas of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and\nsouthern Georgia. The tornado threat will continue Saturday across\nparts of eastern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, and the\nCarolinas.\n \nSURF: Swells from Isaias are affecting the western and northern\nportions of the Yucatan Peninsula and are spreading northward toward\nthe Gulf Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening\nsurf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your\nlocal weather office.\n \nA depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found\nat: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents\n \n \nNEXT ADVISORY\n-------------\nNext intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.\nNext complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.\n \n"}