{"msg": "707\nAXNT20 KNHC 090957\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Fri Oct 9 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0955 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Isaias is centered near 26.4N 88.0W at 09/0900 UTC or\n320 nm NNE of Progreso Mexico, moving NNE at 13 kt. Estimated\nminimum central pressure is 963 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed\nis 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong\nconvection is across the eastern Gulf between 83W-90W. Strongest\nstorms are occurring within 90 nm of the center of Isaias. Seas \nnear the center are up to 32 ft. A turn toward the north is expected\nlater today. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to approach\nthe U.S. northern Gulf Coast this afternoon and make landfall \nwithin the warning area tonight or early Saturday. Isaias is \nlikely to become a major hurricane this morning. Slight weakening \nis expected before landfall, but it is expected to remain a \ndangerous hurricane. Swells from Isaias are affecting the western \nand northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and will spread \nnorthward toward the Gulf Coast later today. These swells are \nlikely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.\nPlease consult products from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest \nIsaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 19N,\nmoving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong\nconvection is observed from 04N to 17N and east of 38W.\nA western Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of 20N,\nmoving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong\nconvection is present from 15N to 23N and between 74W and 82W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of\nGuinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues westward to 1012 mb low \nnear 12N33W to 09N41W. Please see the Tropical Waves section for\ninformation on the convection over the eastern Atlantic.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nPlease read the Special Features section above for more information\non Hurricane Isaias centered over the central Gulf of America.\nA stationary front extends from the western Atlantic across\ncentral Florida and into the north-central Gulf waters near\n28N89W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near\nthis boundary as it interacts with Isaias. Some showers and\nthunderstorms are also evident in the SW Gulf waters. Outside of\nthe direct influence of Isaias, moderate to fresh winds and\nmoderate to rough seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, Isaias will move to 28.4N 87.3W this afternoon,\ninland to 31.0N 87.1W Sat morning, move inland and weaken to a \ntropical storm near 33.5N 87.5W Sat afternoon, move inland and \nweaken to a tropical depression near 35.5N 86.7W Sun morning, \ninland to 38.2N 83.1W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning. \nSwells generated by the cyclone will spread northward across the \nbasin central Gulf through Sat night. In the wake of Isaias, weak \nhigh pressure will develop over the north-central Gulf by Sun \nevening resulting in moderate or weaker return flow over the \nwestern Gulf through midweek. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active\ntropical wave in the western Caribbean.\nA weak subtropical ridge between Bermuda and the Outer Banks\nsustain moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across\nthe eastern and central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh southerly\nwinds and moderate seas are noted west of 82W due to the influence\nof Hurricane Isaias currently over the Gulf of America. Light to\ngentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient results in moderate to\nfresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas in the eastern and\ncentral Caribbean and this will continue over the next few days.\nWinds will pulse to strong speeds and seas will reach 8 ft tonight \nthrough Sun night in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of \nVenezuela. Hurricane Isaias over the central Gulf of America is \nproducing fresh southerly winds in the Yucatan Channel and these \nwinds will lift northward today. Meanwhile, a tropical wave near 79W \nis producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the \narea. Unsettled weather conditions will remain associated with this \nwave as it moves across the western Caribbean through the weekend. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA stationary front extends from south of Bermuda to central\nFlorida near Melbourne. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas\nof 4-6 ft are found off NE Florida. A weak pressure gradient\nprevails across the remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of\n55W, supporting moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft. \nA strong 1033 mb high pressure system just north of the Azores\nand a surface trough along 50W combine to support moderate to\nfresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft north of the monsoon\ntrough and east of 50W. A few showers are seen east of the surface\ntrough.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will lift \nback N as a warm front on Sat. Fresh to strong E winds and rough \nseas are expected today off NE Florida as Hurricane Isaias tracks \nnorthward across the Gulf of America. These winds will veer to the\nSE at moderate to fresh speeds early on Sat before weakening to \ngentle to moderate speeds by Sun. Otherwise, as high pressure \nmoves into the western Atlantic, a tightening pressure gradient \nwill support NE-E winds of fresh to locally strong speeds and \nrough seas behind a cold front over the eastern waters, mainly N \nof 26N, Sun into Mon. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast \nto push off the U.S. southeastern coast early on Mon and move \nacross the waters N of 29N through Tue night while it weakens. \nLight to gentle winds and moderate seas will dominate much of the \nbasin early next week.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217231070534467591", "issued": "2026-10-09T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217231070534467591"}