{"msg": "121\nAXPZ20 KNHC 090902\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Fri Oct 9 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0830 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Simon is centered near 15.8N 104.5W at 09/0900 UTC,\nmoving northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n978 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100\nkt. Peak seas are near 25 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered \nstrong convection is observed from 13N to 17N between 103W and \n107W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is \nelsewhere from 10N to 20N between 100W and 111W. Simon is \nexpected to approach the west-central coast of Mexico as a major \nhurricane on Saturday. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will \nimpact portions of southwestern Mexico through this weekend. This\nrainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, \nespecially in areas of steep terrain. Swells will affect portions\nof the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico through the\nweekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf \nand rip current conditions. Please consult products from your \nlocal weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the\nNational Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nTropical Storm Rachel is centered near 22.7N 124.9W at 09/0900\nUTC, moving northeast at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with\ngusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Scattered moderate \nconvection is within 120 nm of center. Rachel is expected to \napproach the coast of northern Baja California, Mexico, and the \nnorthern Gulf of California at tropical storm strength over the \nweekend. Rachel and the moisture associated with the system will\nspread over portions of the Southwest United States and northern\nBaja California Peninsula through this weekend. This will lead \nto increasing coverage of rainfall and the potential for flash \nand urban flooding. Swells partly generated by Rachel will \ncontinue to build along the coast of Southern California and \nnorthern Baja California. These swells are likely to cause life-\nthreatening surf and rip current conditions, as well as minor to \nmoderate coastal flooding, through early next week. Please \nconsult products from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N94W, then resumes \nnear 14N129W to beyond 09N140W. In addition to the convection \nassociated with Rachel and Simon, scattered moderate to isolated \nstrong convection is noted N of 06N between 84W and 96W, and \nfrom 00N to 07N between 134W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Simon.\nOutside of the areas impacted by Simon, a weak pressure gradient\ndominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, \nsupporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Simon is near 15.8N 104.5W at 2 AM \nPDT, and is moving northwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are\n80 kt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is \n978 mb. Simon will move to 16.1N 104.7W this afternoon, 16.7N \n104.9W Sat morning, 17.6N 105.0W Sat afternoon, 18.6N 105.1W Sun \nmorning, inland to 19.9N 105.3W Sun afternoon, and 21.4N 105.4W \nMon morning. Simon will weaken to a tropical storm while moving \ninland near 23.7N 106.0W early Tue. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm \nRachel is near 22.7N 124.9W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northeast \nat 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, \nand the minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Rachel will move to \n23.0N 124.4W this afternoon, 24.1N 122.4W Sat morning, 26.5N \n119.3W Sat afternoon, 30.8N 116.5W Sun morning, inland to 35.3N \n114.2W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLight to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are noted N \nof 03N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas in\nSW swell prevail S of 03N. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate\nor lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast \nwaters through the middle of next week. An area of low pressure \nis forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next \nweek. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual \ndevelopment of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression \ncould form as it moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 \nmph. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone \nformation through 7 days. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Rachel.\nOutside of the influence of Tropical Storm Rachel, moderate to \nfresh winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail N of 15N and W \nof 120W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas prevail \nelsewhere.\nFor the forecast, Rachel will move to 23.0N 124.4W this \nafternoon, 24.1N 122.4W Sat morning, 26.5N 119.3W Sat afternoon, \n30.8N 116.5W Sun morning, inland to 35.3N 114.2W Sun afternoon, \nand dissipate Mon morning. A tightening pressure gradient between\nRachel and a ridge over the NW forecast area will bring fresh to\nstrong N winds and rough seas across the waters N of 25N between\n128W and 135W by tonight. These marine conditions will persist \non Sat. Large SW swell will affect the waters S of the Equator \nand west of 105W over the next couple of days. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217220383648350215", "issued": "2026-10-09T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217220383648350215"}