{"msg": "827\nAXNT20 KNHC 090457\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Fri Oct 9 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0430 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Isaias is centered near 25.4N 88.4W at 09/0300 UTC or\n260 nm NNE of Progreso Mexico, moving NE at 12 kt. Estimated\nminimum central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed\nis 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered moderate to strong\nconvection is across the eastern Gulf between 83W-90W. Seas up to\n32 ft are expected in the area of strongest winds. On the \nforecast track, Isaias is expected to approach the U.S. northern \nGulf Coast on Friday and make landfall within the warning area \nlate Friday or early Saturday. Swells from Isaias are affecting \nthe western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and \nwill spread northward toward the Gulf Coast on Friday. These \nswells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest \nIsaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is moving across the Cabo Verde Islands and\nextends along 26W, south of 19N moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. \nScattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N \nto 10N between the W coast of Africa and 30W.\nA tropical wave is moving across the west-central Caribbean, with\naxis is along 78W, moving westward at around 15 kt. This wave is \ninteracting with a broad upper-level low over the W Caribbean. \nAt this time, scattered showers are noted across the northern \nhalf of the wave.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues \nwestward to 1014 mb low near 12N33W to 12N40W. The ITCZ extends \nfrom 12N40W to 10N61W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring\nwithin 300 nm on either side of the monsoon trough and E of 38W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nPlease read the Special Features section above for more information\non Hurricane Isaias. \nAn old frontal boundary extends from the western Atlantic across \ncentral Florida and into the north-central Gulf waters to near \n25N94W. Convection remains active along the frontal boundary. \nHigh pressure across the southeastern U.S. extends across the \nnorthern Gulf. The pressure gradient between this high and the \nfront is forcing fresh to strong NE to E winds to the north of \nthe front. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with these winds per altimeter\ndata. Elsewhere, fresh W to NW winds wrap cyclonically across \nthe SW Gulf and into the western Yucatan, where seas are 5 to 8 \nft. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Isaias will move to 27.1N 87.6W Fri \nmorning, 29.9N 87.1W Fri evening, move inland and weaken to a \ntropical storm near 32.2N 87.3W Sat morning, move inland and \nweaken to a tropical depression near 34.1N 87.5W Sat evening, \ninland to 36.1N 86.1W Sun morning, and inland to 38.0N 83.0W Sun \nevening. Isaias will dissipate late Mon. Swells generated by the \ncyclone will spread northward across the basin central Gulf \nthrough Sat night. In the wake of Isaias, weak high pressure will \ndevelop over the north-central Gulf by Sun evening resulting in \nmoderate or weaker return flow over the western Gulf through \nmidweek. In the wake of Isaias, weak high pressure will develop \nover the north-central Gulf by Sun evening resulting in moderate \nor weaker return flow over the western Gulf through midweek. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA weak pressure gradient over the region is supporting moderate \nto fresh trades over the central and eastern portions of the \nbasin while gentle to moderate southeast to south winds are over \nthe western portion, except for fresh southeast to south winds \nnorth of 19N and west of 85W. As previously mentioned, a tropical\nwave with axis along 76W is generated scattered showers and\nthunderstorms over the central Caribbean. \nFor the forecast, the moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and \nmoderate seas in the eastern and central Caribbean will continue \nover the next few days. Winds will pulse to strong speeds at night\nFri through Sun. Hurricane Isaias over the central Gulf of \nAmerica is producing fresh southerly winds in the Yucatan Channel \nand these winds will lift northward Fri. Meanwhile, a tropical \nwave near 78W is producing a few showers and isolated \nthunderstorms in the area. The wave will move across the western \nCaribbean tonight through the weekend while weakening. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA stationary front extends from 31N65W to near Cape Canaveral, \nFlorida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along \nthe frontal boundary. Moderate easterly winds are N of the front \nand W of 75W. Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail N of 28N between \n59W and 66W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. A 1018 mb high is centered \nnear 27N58W, and extends a broad ridge westward to the Bahamas. \nAcross the central Atlantic, a deep layered upper trough has \ninduced a surface trough below it, and extends from 27N48W to \n20N53W. This deep layered feature is generating scattered showers\nand thunderstorms N of 20N and E of the trough axis to about 37W.\nA broad surface ridge, associated with the Azores High, dominates\nthe remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. The pressure \ngradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with both\nthe aforementioned surface trough and a dissipating cold front \nover NW Africa, is supporting fresh NE to E winds and moderate \nseas N of 20N and E of 44W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere\nalong with slight to moderate seas.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the front is forecast to weaken and\nthe eastern portion will transition to a cold front tonight while\nits western portion will lift back N as a warm front on Sat. \nWinds will reach fresh to strong speeds off NE Florida late \ntonight as Hurricane Isaias will be tracking northward across the \nGulf of America. These winds will veer to the SE at fresh speeds \nearly on Sat before weakening to moderate speeds by Sun morning. \nOtherwise, as high pressure moves into the western Atlantic, a \ntightening pressure gradient will support NE-E winds of fresh to \nlocally strong speeds and rough seas behind a cold front over the \neastern waters, mainly N of 25N, Sun into Mon. Looking ahead, a \nnew cold front is forecast to push off the U.S. southeastern coast\nearly on Mon and move across the waters N of 29N through Tue \nnight while it weakens. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217172209504747527", "issued": "2026-10-09T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217172209504747527"}