{"msg": "636\nAXPZ20 KNHC 090326\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Fri Oct 9 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0300 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nRecently upgraded Hurricane Simon is centered near 15.6N 104.6W \nat 09/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum \ncentral pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt\nwith gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are near 25 ft. Numerous moderate\nto scattered strong convection is observed from 13N to 17N \nbetween 103W and 107W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong\nconvection is elsewhere from 10N to 19N between 100W and 110W.\nSimon is expected to approach the west-central coast of Mexico\nas a major hurricane on Saturday. Heavy rainfall associated with\nSimon will impact portions of southwestern Mexico through this \nweekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and \nmudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells will \naffect portions of the southwestern and west-central coast of \nMexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause \nlife-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the\nNational Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nTropical Storm Rachel is centered near 22.6N 125.5W at 09/0300\nUTC, moving west-northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with\ngusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are near 24 ft. Scattered moderate \nconvection is within 120 nm of center. Rachel's forward speed is\nexpected to slow considerably, which will initiate its \nanticipated northeastward turn, followed by an increase in \nforward speed thereafter. Rachel is expected to approach the \ncoast of northern Baja California, Mexico, and the northern Gulf \nof California at tropical storm strength over the weekend. Rachel\nand the moisture associated with the system will spread over \nportions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja \nCalifornia peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to \nincreasing coverage of rainfall and potential for flash and urban\nflooding. Swells partly generated by Rachel will continue to \nbuild along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja \nCalifornia. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening \nsurf and rip current conditions, as well as minor to moderate \ncoastal flooding, through early next week. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 08N86W to 11N97W, then\nresumes near 14N128W to beyond 11N140W. In addition to the \nconvection associated with Rachel and Simon, scattered moderate \nto isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N E of 90W,\nfrom 06N to 16N between 99W and 100W, and from 00N to 10N between\n120W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Simon.\nOutside of the areas impacted by Simon, a weak pressure gradient\ndominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, \nsupporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Simon is near 15.6N 104.6W at 8 PM \nPDT, and is moving west-northwest at 5 kt. Maximum sustained \nwinds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central \npressure is 985 mb. Simon will move to 16.1N 105.0W Fri morning, \n16.9N 105.2W Fri evening, 17.8N 105.3W Sat morning, 19.0N 105.3W \nSat evening, inland to 20.4N 105.3W Sun morning, and move inland \nand weaken to a tropical storm near 21.6N 105.3W Sun evening. \nMeanwhile, Tropical Storm Rachel is near 22.6N 125.5W at 8 PM \nPDT, and is moving west-northwest at 5 kt. Maximum sustained \nwinds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central \npressure is 990 mb. Rachel will move to 22.7N 125.3W Fri morning,\n23.4N 124.0W Fri evening, 25.0N 121.2W Sat morning, 28.2N 118.3W\nSat evening, 32.4N 115.7W Sun morning, and become post-tropical \nand move to 37.4N 112.6W Sun evening. Rachel will dissipate late \nMon.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLight to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are noted N \nof 03N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas in\nSW swell prevail S of 03N. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate\nor lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast \nwaters through the middle of next week. An area of low pressure \nis forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next \nweek. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual \ndevelopment of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression \ncould form as it moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 \nmph. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone \nformation through 7 days. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Rachel.\nOutside of the influence of Tropical Storm Rachel, Moderate to\nfresh winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail N of 15N and W\nof 120W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas prevail\nelsewhere.\nFor the forecast, will move to 22.7N 125.3W Fri morning,\n23.4N 124.0W Fri evening, 25.0N 121.2W Sat morning, 28.2N 118.3W\nSat evening, 32.4N 115.7W Sun morning, and become post-tropical \nand move to 37.4N 112.6W Sun evening. Rachel will dissipate late \nMon. A tightening pressure gradient between Rachel and a ridge \nover the NW forecast area will bring fresh to strong N winds and \nrough seas across the waters N of 25N between 128W and 135W by \nFri night. These marine conditions will persist on Sat. Large SW\nswell will affect the waters S of the Equator and west of 105W \nover the next couple of days. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217154290017501191", "issued": "2026-10-09T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217154290017501191"}