{"id": "1217153418605592583", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-09T03:00:00Z", "msg": "586\nWTPZ45 KNHC 090321 CCA\nTCDEP5\n \nHurricane Simon Discussion Number   7...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026\n900 PM CST Thu Oct 08 2026\n\nCorrected malformed non-unicode character in third paragraph.\n\nSimon has become a hurricane this evening.  The satellite\npresentation consists of a developing small, intense, central dense\novercast with -82C cold cloud tops, and a primary curved band\nwrapping into the center from the northwest part of the cyclone. The\nTAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimate is 65 kt, as well as the\ninitial intensity for this advisory.\n \nSimon's wind radii were adjusted based on a 1920 UTC OSCAT-3\noverpass.\n \nAll conducive ocean heat content, dynamic, and thermodynamic\nenvironmental contributions indicate that Simon should quickly\nintensify during the next 24-36 hrs.  Subsequently, the SHIPS RI\nindex shows a near 70 percent that the cyclone intensity will\nincrease by 30 kt in 24 hrs.  This seems quite reasonable given that\nSimon's inner core is rather small, indicative of a recent AMSR3 MI\npass.  Accordingly, the official intensity forecast will continue to\npredict an RI event on Friday, with Simon becoming a category 4\nhurricane while heading toward the coast of west-central Mexico.\nThe NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, is close\nto the HFIP-HCCA, and now shows a peak intensity of 120 kt on\nSaturday morning.\n \nSimon's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or\n295/5 kt.  A turn to the northwest is expected by early Friday. A\nnorthward motion is forecast by early Saturday while high pressure\nover central Mexico weakens and shifts eastward, in response to an\namplifying mid-tropospheric trough approaching Baja California. The\nHiRes global models that have been to the left of the forecast track\noutliers have trended eastward during the past 24 hours, and now\nalign more with the skilled HCCA and GDMI aids.  Therefore,\nconfidence in the forecast track is increasing.  The official\nforecast is slightly to the left of the previous advisory and a\nlittle slower to conform to the HCCA model, which includes the\nGoogle DeepMind TC ensemble mean.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Simon is expected to approach the west-central coast of Mexico\nas a major hurricane on Saturday.\n \n2. Life-threatening wind and storm surge impacts are expected along\na portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a Hurricane\nWarning is in effect from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita.\nPreparations to protect life and property should be completed by\nlate Friday.\n \n3. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of\nsouthwestern Mexico through this weekend. This rainfall may produce\nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of\nsteep terrain.\n \n4. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central\ncoast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to\ncause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please\nconsult products from your local weather office.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  09/0300Z 15.6N 104.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  09/1200Z 16.1N 105.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  10/0000Z 16.9N 105.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  10/1200Z 17.8N 105.3W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  11/0000Z 19.0N 105.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 60H  11/1200Z 20.4N 105.3W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  12/0000Z 21.6N 105.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  13/0000Z 23.3N 105.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}