{"id": "1217146146797322247", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-09T03:00:00Z", "msg": "592\nWTPZ43 KNHC 090245\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number  48\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n800 PM PDT Thu Oct 08 2026\n\nRachel's deep convection is barely hanging on. While satellite \nimagery over the last few hours has shown some re-invigoration over \nthe northeastern quadrant, Rachel has been primarily defined by weak \nand broken bands surrounding its inner core. The latest subjective \nDvorak intensity estimate from TAFB gave Rachel a 2.5/3.5, \nreflecting a weakening trend, and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS \ncontinue to trend downward. ASCAT data from around 1830 UTC also \nrevealed max winds at around 43 kt. Given these data, Rachel's \ninitial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt. \n\nInitial motion was estimated at around 295/5 kt. Rachel's forward \nspeed is expected to slow considerably as it is forecast to be \npicked up by a cutoff low descending from just off the coast of \nCalifornia. This will initiate its anticipated northeastward turn, \nfollowed by an increase in forward speed thereafter. What is \ncomplicating Rachel's track forecast is the interaction of a much \nbroader trough that is forecast to dig down and envelop the western \nUS over the weekend. Guidance seems to favor giving Rachel a more \nnortherly component in its motion as it approaches northern Baja \nCalifornia as a result. The latest NHC track forecast has been \nadjusted once again to fall in line closer to HCCA and GDMI \nguidance, which now favors a leftward shift in the track as Rachel \napproaches land compared to the previous advisory.\n\nThe environment surrounding Rachel continues to be characterized by \ndry mid-level air. Thus Rachel's convection is expected to keep \ndissipating, before interaction with the aforementioned low \npotentially reintroduces convection in the form of added instability \naloft. This will come with the consequence of added vertical wind \nshear, however, which should result in Rachel's vortex further \ndegrading. The latest NHC intensity forecast depicts further \nweakening through the next 24 hours, before leveling off thereafter \nto compensate for another potential burst of convection. Rachel, \nhowever, is still anticipated to become post-tropical either right \naround or shortly after landfall. It should be noted, however, that \neven as a post-tropical cyclone, Rachel is still capable of gusty \nwinds and heavy rain along its path. \n\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of northern Baja \nCalifornia, Mexico, and the northern Gulf of California at tropical \nstorm strength over the weekend, and a Tropical Storm Watch could be \nrequired for a portion of this area later tonight or tomorrow.\n\n2. Strong gusty winds associated with the remnants of Rachel are \nexpected to spread over interior portions of the Southwest United \nStates, especially in areas of higher terrain, from this weekend \ninto early next week.\n\n3. Rachel and the moisture associated with the system will spread \nover portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja \nCalifornia peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to \nincreasing coverage of rainfall and potential for flash and urban \nflooding.\n\n4. Swells partly generated by Rachel will continue to build along \nthe coast of Southern California and northern Baja California.  \nThese swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip \ncurrent conditions, as well as minor to moderate coastal flooding, \nthrough early next week.  Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\n\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  09/0300Z 22.6N 125.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  09/1200Z 22.7N 125.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  10/0000Z 23.4N 124.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  10/1200Z 25.0N 121.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  11/0000Z 28.2N 118.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 60H  11/1200Z 32.4N 115.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  12/0000Z 37.4N 112.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}