{"msg": "247\nAXNT20 KNHC 082304\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Fri Oct 9 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2300 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Isaias is centered near 24.4N 89.3W at 08/2100 UTC or\n190 nm N of Progreso Mexico, moving NE at 10 kt. Estimated\nminimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed\nis 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 32 ft (9.5 m) \nNumerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm of\ncenter. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is\nelsewhere from 25N to 28N between 85W and 90W. Isaias is moving \ntoward the northeast. A turn toward the north is expected on \nFriday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the \nnorth of the Yucatan Peninsula through this evening and make \nlandfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast within the warning \narea late Friday or early Saturday. Additional strengthening is \nexpected through early Friday, and Isaias should remain a \ndangerous hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast \nFriday night. From Friday through the weekend, Isaias is expected to \nproduce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, \nthe Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia. Localized \ntotals up to 15 inches are possible, particularly within banding \nacross the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Across the coastal \nCarolinas, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with localized totals up to 8 \ninches are possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with \nlocalized amounts up to 5 inches, are possible across much of the \nremainder of the Southeast. Flash and urban flooding is likely \nacross the region, with considerable impacts possible across much of \nsouthern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern \nGeorgia. River flooding is also expected, some of which could be \nsignificant. Swells will affect the western and northern portions of the\nYucatan Peninsula today and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast\non Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf\nand rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local\nweather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest \nIsaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is moving across the Cabo Verde Islands and\nextends along 23W/24W, south of 19N moving westward at 5 to 10 \nkt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from \n05N to 16N between the W coast of Africa and 28W.\nA tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Its axis\nis along 76W, moving westward at around 15 kt. This wave is \ninteracting with a broad upper-level low over the W Caribbean. \nScattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over eastern\nCuba, and parts of Hispaniola, and Jamaica as well as over the\ncentral Caribbean N of 15N between 72W and 80W. Similar\nconvective activity is noted over the Cayman Islands and regional\nwaters. This wave is also forcing moderate to locally fresh \nwinds from 15N to the coast of Hispaniola, with gusty winds and \nrough seas likely in the areas of strong convection.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues\nwestward to 12N30W to 11N45W. The ITCZ extends from 11NN45W to\nnear Trinidad and Tobago. Scattered moderate convection is \noccurring from 11N to 15N between 30W and 38W, and from 04N to\n12N between 40W and 48W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nPlease read the Special Features section above for more information\non Hurricane Isaias. \nAn old frontal boundary extends from the western Atlantic across \ncentral Florida and into the north-central Gulf waters to near \n25N94W. Convection remains active along the frontal boundary. \nHigh pressure across the southeastern U.S. extends across the \nnorthern Gulf. The pressure gradient between this high and the \nfront is forcing fresh to strong NE to E winds to the north of \nthe front. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with these winds per altimeter\ndata. Elsewhere, fresh W to NW winds wrap cyclonically across \nthe SW Gulf and into the western Yucatan, where seas are 5 to 8 \nft. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Isaias will move to 25.7N 88.4W Fri \nmorning, 28.2N 87.4W Fri afternoon, inland to 31.0N 87.2W Sat \nmorning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near \n33.2N 87.8W Sat afternoon, inland to 35.0N 87.8W Sun morning, and\ninland to 37.0N 85.0W Sun afternoon. Isaias will dissipate Mon \nafternoon. Swells generated by the cyclone will spread northward\nacross the central Gulf through Sat night. In the wake of \nIsaias, weak high pressure will develop over the north-central \nGulf by Sun evening resulting in moderate or weaker return flow \nover the western Gulf through midweek. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA weak pressure gradient over the region is supporting moderate \nto fresh trades over the central and eastern portions of the \nbasin while gentle to moderate southeast to south winds are over \nthe western portion, except for fresh southeast to south winds \nnorth of 19N and west of 85W. As previously mentioned, a tropical\nwave with axis along 76W is generated scattered showers and\nthunderstorms over the central Caribbean. \nFor the forecast, the fresh winds will lift north through the \nYucatan Channel and to the Gulf of America on Fri. A tropical \nwave is near 76W. This system will move across the western \nCaribbean tonight through the weekend while weakening. Moderate \nor weaker winds are forecast basin wide early next week, with \npulse of fresh speeds between Hispaniola and South America.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA stationary front extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located NE\nof Bermuda near 33N62W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Scattered\nshowers and isolated thunderstorms are along the frontal boundary.\nModerate easterly winds are N of the front and W of 75W. Moderate\nto fresh SW winds prevail N of 28N between 59W and 66W, where \nseas are 5 to 7 ft. A 1018 mb high is centered near 30N52W, and \nextends a broad ridge southwest to near 60W and then westward to\nthe Bahamas. Across the central Atlantic, a deep layered upper \ntrough has induced a surface trough below it, and extends from \n29N46W to 20N51W. This deep layered feature is generating \nscattered showers and thunderstorms N of 20N and E of the trough\naxis to about 38W.  A broad surface ridge, associated with the \nAzores High, dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast\nwaters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower \npressure associated with both the aforementioned surface trough \nand a dissipating cold front over NW Africa, is supporting fresh \nNE to E winds and moderate seas N of 20N and E of 44W. Moderate \nor weaker winds are elsewhere along with slight to moderate seas.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the stationary will weaken tonight.\nIts northern portion will transition to a cold front tonight \nwhile its western portion will lift back N as a warm front on \nSat. Winds will reach fresh to strong speeds off NE Florida \ntonight as Hurricane Isaias will be tracking northward across the\nGulf of America. These winds will veer to the SE at fresh speeds\nearly on Sat before weakening to moderate speeds by Sun morning.\nOtherwise, high pressure to the SE of Bermuda will shift westward\non Fri, thus resulting in an increased pressure gradient and E to \nSE winds of moderate to fresh speeds S of 24N through Sun night.\nLooking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to push off the U.S.\nsoutheastern coast early on Mon and move across the waters N of \n29N through Tue night while it further weakens.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217102701798064135", "issued": "2026-10-08T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217102701798064135"}