{"msg": "408\nAXPZ20 KNHC 082146\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Thu Oct 8 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Simon is centered near 15.7N 103.9W at 08/2100\nUTC, moving west at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75\nkt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered \nstrong convection is observed from 14N to 18N between 99W and \n105W. A turn to the northwest is expected by early Friday, followed\nby a northward motion Friday night. On the forecast track, the \ncore of Simon is expected to approach the coast of southwestern \nand west-central Mexico on Saturday. Rapid strengthening is forecast,\nand Simon is expected to become a hurricane tonight and a very \ndangerous category 4 hurricane before it reaches the coast of \nMexico. Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 15 \ninches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum\ntotals between 15 and 25 inches possible across portions of Michoacan,\nColima and Jalisco through Sunday. This rainfall may produce \nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of \nsteep terrain.  Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of \nthe coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next\nfew days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf\nand rip current conditions. Please consult products from your \nlocal weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the\nNational Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nTropical Storm Rachel is centered near 22.4N 124.6W at 08/2100\nUTC, moving west-northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with\ngusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are near 24 ft. Scattered moderate \nconvection is within 120 nm of center. Rachel is moving toward \nthe west-northwest. This general motion is expected to continue \nover the next 24 hours, before a sharp turn to the northeast, \nalong with an increase in forward speed, occurs on Friday and \nSaturday. On the forecast track the center of Rachel is expected \nto approach the northern portion of Baja California late Saturday.\nGradual weakening is expected over the couple of days, but Rachel\nis still expected to be at tropical storm strength when it \napproaches northern Baja California. Rachel will bring 1 to 3 \ninches of rain to portions of Baja California this weekend. \nSwells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of \nSouthern California and northern Baja California through the \nweekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf \nand rip current conditions as well as minor to moderate coastal \nflooding. Please consult products from your local weather office.\nInterests in extreme northern Baja California, northern Gulf of \nCalifornia, and southern California should monitor the progress \nof Rachel. Tropical Storm Watches could be required for a portion\nof this area tonight.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 09N90W to 12N95W, then\nresumes S of T.S. Rachel near 13N125W to beyond 11N140W. In \naddition to the convection associated with Rachel and Simon, \nscattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found \nfrom 00N to 08N E of 90W, from 03N to 14N between 94W and 100W, \nand from 00N to 11N W of 110W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nTropical Storm Simon located about 200 nm S of Manzanillo, \nMexico. Simon is almost a hurricane.\nOutside of the areas impacted by Tropical Storm Simon, a weak \npressure gradient dominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore\nwaters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate\nseas.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Simon will strengthen to a \nhurricane near 16.1N 104.4W Fri morning, move to 16.8N 104.9W \nFri afternoon, 17.7N 105.0W Sat morning, 18.8N 104.9W Sat \nafternoon, inland to 19.9N 104.9W Sun morning, and move inland \nand weaken to a tropical storm near 21.1N 104.8W Sun afternoon. \nSimon will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland \nnear 23.2N 105.0W Mon afternoon. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLight to gentle winds with moderate seas in SW swell are noted \nN of 03N while gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate to\nrough seas in SW swell prevail S of 03N. \nFor the forecast, long-period southerly swell will produce moderate\nto rough seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through \ntonight. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate\nor lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast \nwaters through the middle of next week. Looking ahead, an area of\nlow pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala\nearly next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for \nsome gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical\ndepression could form as it moves generally west-northwestward \nat around 10 mph. This system has a medium chance of tropical \ncyclone formation through 7 days.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Rachel located over the NE waters.\nOutside of the influence of Tropical Storm Rachel, high pressure\nlocated well N of area extends a ridge over the NW forecast \nwaters supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds and moderate \nseas. Higher winds of moderate to fresh speeds are noted N of 20N\nbetween 125W and 132W due to the pressure gradient between the \nridge and Tropical Storm Rachel. Seas of 8 ft or greater, generated\nby Rachel, currently dominate the area from 17N to 28N between \n119W and 131W. \nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Rachel will move to 22.6N 125.1W \nFri morning, 23.0N 124.5W Fri afternoon, 24.0N 122.6W Sat morning,\n26.2N 119.7W Sat afternoon, 30.2N 116.3W Sun morning, and inland\nto 33.3N 113.8W Sun afternoon. Rachel will dissipate Mon afternoon.\nA tightening pressure gradient between Rachel and a ridge over \nthe NW forecast area will bring fresh to strong N winds and rough\nseas across the waters N of 25N between 128W and 135W by Fri \nnight. These marine conditions will persist on Sat. Additionally,\nlarge SW swell will continue to affect roughly the waters S of \nthe Equator and west of 105W over the next couple of days. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217087378278907911", "issued": "2026-10-08T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217087378278907911"}