{"id": "1217076721116020743", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-08T21:00:00Z", "msg": "591\nWTPZ43 KNHC 082052\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number  47\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n200 PM PDT Thu Oct 08 2026\n \nThe convection for Rachel has continue to slowly degrade as dry air\ncontinues to hinder the cyclone. The cloud tops have continued to\nwarm and now the coldest cloud tops are around -45 C. While the\nmost recent TAFB subjective Dvorak intensity estimate is still\n4.0/65 kt, the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range\nof 32-60 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been lowered to\n55 kt for this advisory.\n\nThe initial motion was estimated around 300/3 kt. The storm is \nbeing steered by high pressure located over the southwestern \nUnited States. In about 24 hours, a mid- to upper-level trough \ncurrently sweeping across the Pacific is expected to turn Rachel to \nthe northeast and increase its forward speed. The track \nguidance has generally shifted towards the southeast with this \nadvisory, therefore the current NHC forecast track has also shifted \nin that direction, favoring the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. \n \nRachel is expected to continue to weaken during the next 12 to 24 \nhours due to cooling sea-surface temperatures and dry mid-level \nair. The wind shear is expected to continue increase as the trough \nmoves closer to the storm, which may cause additional weakening, \nhowever Rachel is expected to be at tropical storm strength when \nit nears Baja California. The current NHC intensity forecast is \nsimilar to the previous one, with some adjustments made based on the \nHCCA and GDMI forecast aids. \n\nRachel could lose tropical cyclone status as deep convection wanes, \nhowever simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest \nconvection will return as it moves northwestward over warmer waters \nand is influenced by the approaching trough. Regardless of the \nstatus of Rachel on its approach to Baja California, heavy rainfall \nand tropical-storm-force winds are expected over portions of \nnorthwestern Mexico and the southwest United States.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of northern Baja \nCalifornia, Mexico, and the northern Gulf of California at tropical \nstorm strength over the weekend, and a Tropical Storm Watch could be \nrequired for a portion of this area by tonight.\n\n2. Strong gusty winds associated with the remnants of Rachel are \nexpected to spread over interior portions of the Southwest United \nStates, especially in areas of higher terrain, from this weekend \ninto early next week.\n\n3. Rachel and the moisture associated with the system will spread \nover portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja \nCalifornia peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to \nincreasing coverage of rainfall and potential for flash and urban \nflooding.\n\n4. Swells partly generated by Rachel will continue to build along \nthe coast of Southern California and northern Baja California.  \nThese swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip \ncurrent conditions, as well as minor to moderate coastal flooding, \nthrough early next week.  Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\n\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  08/2100Z 22.4N 124.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  09/0600Z 22.6N 125.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  09/1800Z 23.0N 124.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  10/0600Z 24.0N 122.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  10/1800Z 26.2N 119.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 60H  11/0600Z 30.2N 116.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  11/1800Z 33.3N 113.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}